The Denver Broncos have hurt their playoff chances in the past few weeks with a couple of rough performances that have resulted in losses.
However, the fact we are even talking about the Broncos’ playoff scenarios in Week 16 is a testament to the fantastic job they have done turning around their 1-5 start to sit at 7-7.
Denver Broncos Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:20 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After the Week 16 slate, the Broncos are now the No. 12 seed in the AFC after losing to the Patriots.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Sunday Night Football Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Broncos entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Broncos’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 16?
The Broncos were sitting nicely at 6-5 and then 7-6, but 7-7 is a tricky spot in the AFC playoff picture right now. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Broncos have a 21.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.9% chance of winning the division.
The AFC Wild Card picture is, well, wild. The Cleveland Browns are the fifth seed at 9-5, the Bills are the sixth seed at 9-6 with the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars at 8-6. The Broncos at 7-7 are half a game behind the Steelers and Bengals at 8-7.
However, there is plenty that can change in the coming weeks. The Broncos will have a clearer picture by the time they kick-off on Sunday Night Football, with all of their main opponents for AFC Wild Card spots playing earlier in the day.
The highest a win could lift the Broncos is 10th if they win and all their main opponents for the AFC Wild Card spots lose. They would be above the Bengals but below the Steelers based on NFL playoff tiebreakers. Meanwhile, a loss could see them slip behind the Las Vegas Raiders and potentially all but eliminate them from the AFC Wild Card race.
The best-case scenario for the Broncos is that they win, and the Colts, Jaguars, and Texans all lose.
Saturday’s game between the Steelers and Bengals helped the Broncos in terms of keeping Cincinnati at eight wins but also means they cannot climb above the Steelers this week. Meanwhile, the Bills’ victory ensures that at best the Broncos will be a full game behind the team holding the sixth seed after Week 16.
If the Broncos win out, there is a good chance they will make the playoffs. It is not guaranteed because of the number of other teams that can also get to 10 or 11 wins. However, they would give themselves a really good shot with a 7-5 conference record in the event of any multi-team tiebreakers.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
In terms of head-to-heads, the Broncos defeated the Browns and Bills but lost to the Texans. Those may not come into play unless we get into a specific tiebreaker involving all or just them and one other of those teams.
However, it is always a bonus to have a couple of head-to-heads in your back pocket.
Of course, the Broncos could avoid all of that chaos if they win the division, which strictly speaking is still possible as of Sunday.
How Can the Broncos Win the AFC West This Season?
Entering Week 16, the Broncos have very little control of their destiny in terms of the division. They trail the Kansas City Chiefs by two games, and the Chiefs could lock up the division this week, regardless of the Broncos’ result.
The Chiefs currently have a three-game lead when it comes to conference record, which would be unassailable with a win in Week 16.
Even if the Broncos managed to tie Kansas City on overall record, division record, and record against common opponents, they could not surpass Kansas City’s conference record.
That scenario is the same if the Chiefs lose the next two and win in Week 18. That would clinch the division, regardless of the Broncos record. However, if the Chiefs go 0-3 or 1-2 with their only win coming in Week 17, Denver has a chance.
If the Chiefs drop all three of their games, the Broncos could win the division, finishing 2-1, as long as those wins come against both the Chargers and Raiders. That would give the Broncos a 9-8 record overall and a 4-2 record in the division. The Chiefs would be 9-8 and 3-3 in the division.
If the Chiefs go 1-2, then the Broncos have to go 3-0, and that would clinch the division in the same manner as above. It is a slim chance, but it is still a chance.
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