After a tough start to the 2023 NFL season, the Denver Broncos find themselves back in the playoff hunt entering Week 14. Winning five of their last six games has moved the Broncos to 6-6 and ninth place in the AFC playoff picture. Denver sits atop a three-way tie and just one game outside of the playoff spots as things currently stand.
Using the help of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s take a look at the best and worst outcomes for the Broncos in Week 14 and what it all means in the bigger picture.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Bengals (7-6) defeated Colts (7-6)
Jets (5-8) defeated Texans (7-6)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
Browns (8-5) defeated Jaguars (8-5)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
Broncos (7-6) defeated Chargers (5-8)
Bills (7-6) defeated Chiefs (8-5)
What Are the Denver Broncos’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios?
Despite their incredible recovery over the last six games, the Broncos still have some work to do if they want to make the playoffs. The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Broncos a 15.1% chance of making the playoffs in the 2023 season. Additionally, the ESPN FPI still gives the Broncos a 1.5% chance of winning the AFC West. However, a lot would need to go their way for that to happen.
The best-case scenario for the Broncos in Week 14 is finishing the week in the same spot they started it in the AFC standings (ninth). No set of results would allow the Broncos to be able to climb any higher in the standings. However, there is a scenario that could see them in a seven-way tie at 7-6 which would put them on the same record as the fifth seed.
Unfortunately, once we start diving into the NFL playoff tiebreakers, the Broncos can’t advance beyond the ninth spot in the standings. The only team currently above the Broncos that they have defeated head-to-head is the Cleveland Browns, but a combination of their loss to the Houston Texans and their conference record would prevent them from being able to jump the Browns this week.
For the Broncos, this week is about their situation in terms of the overall picture. With their conference record sitting at 3-5 entering Week 14, the Broncos cannot ideally afford any more in-conference losses.
MORE: Denver Broncos Depth Chart
They are already one of the worst of the six or seven-win teams in that metric, and it is the second tiebreaker for the Wild Card seedings after head-to-head.
A loss for the Broncos this week could drop them as low as the 12th spot in the AFC, behind the Chargers. Additionally, wins for the Indianapolis Colts, Houston, Texans, and Cleveland Browns could see the Broncos fall two games behind the playoff spots if they lose this week. Making up two games in four weeks without many tiebreakers in your favor is a tough ask.
Can the Broncos Still Win the AFC West?
As we discussed above, the Broncos have a 1.5% chance of winning the AFC West, according to ESPN’s FPI. Entering Week 14, they sit two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs with five games to play. The Broncos essentially need to win out to even give themselves a chance, and even then, they need help from a specific set of circumstances.
The problem for the Broncos is that the tiebreakers for the division are not in their favor right now. Therefore, if the Chiefs only lose two more games, the Broncos need them to be against AFC West opponents. The Broncos and Chiefs split their head-to-head matchups this season, which means their divisional record would be used to separate them.
As things stand, the Broncos are 1-2 within the division, and the Chiefs are 3-1. The Broncos have to play the Chargers twice and the Raiders once down the stretch. Therefore, Denver can get to a maximum of 4-2 in the division. That means they need the Chiefs to lose one of their remaining two games against the Raiders or Chargers.
If the Broncos go 5-0 the rest of the way and the Chiefs 3-2, with one those losses coming against the Raiders, the Chiefs would take the division with a superior divisional record (4-2 vs. 3-3). However, if one of the Chiefs’ losses comes against a team outside of the division, then the two would be tied on their divisional record and rely on their common games record.
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In terms of common games, the Chiefs are currently 6-2 with four games to play against common opponents to both the Chiefs and Broncos. The Broncos are 4-3 with all five of the remaining games coming against common opponents. Therefore, if the Broncos went 5-0 and the Chiefs lost two of those common games, the Broncos would take the division.
If the Chiefs’ second loss comes against the Bengals, it would go to conference record, where currently the Chiefs have a very healthy four-game lead. All of the Chiefs’ remaining games are in-conference, but if they only lose two games, the Broncos cannot overhaul them on conference record.
To summarize all of that, the Broncos need one of the following to happen if they are to take the division:
- Win three more games than the Chiefs in the next five weeks.
- Win two more games than the Chiefs and both of Kansas City’s losses come against the Chargers and Raiders (the Broncos cannot lose to either the Chargers or Raiders themselves).
- The Chiefs lose two of their remaining games against the Bills, Chargers, Raiders, and Patriots, while the Broncos go 5-0.
- The Chiefs lose three of their remaining games against the Bills, Chargers, Raiders, and Patriots, while the Broncos go 4-1 or better.
- The Chiefs lose all of their remaining games against the Bills, Chargers, Raiders, and Patriots, while the Broncos go 3-2 or better.
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