The Denver Broncos‘ fantasy preview takes a look at the fantasy football success of Courtland Sutton, while the Detroit Lions‘ outlook focuses on Jared Goff’s bounce-back spot.
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -5
- Total: 47
- Broncos implied points: 21
- Lions implied points: 26
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: I understand you wanting to target what has proven to be a reasonable floor from Wilson and pick on a Lions defense that peaked early in the season. However, I do recommend treading with some caution.
The floor Wilson has created over the past two months has largely come with his legs, a tough bet for an aging QB to continue. Wilson doesn’t have a top-10 finish since Week 4 and has been held under 225 passing yards in not just three straight games, but nine of his past 10.
The Lions rank seventh in pressure rate this season, and if Wilson is sped up, I don’t trust him to make the big play through the air. Maybe he gets there with another solid rushing performance, but like I said, that’s living on the edge.
Wilson is my QB14 this week, ranking behind Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love, who are available in plenty of leagues.
Jared Goff: We’ve missed “Home Goff” in our lives over the past two weeks, but we get him back at the perfect time!
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Goff had multiple TD passes in four straight games before the dud in Chicago last week. Yet, I think we get back on track against a Broncos defense that is bottom five in pressure rate and yards per play.
Goff has four top-eight performances this season — all came in either beautiful weather conditions or spots with a controlled environment. He’s in that top-eight conversation for me this week and should be considered a viable option in all formats.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams: Fresh off of his first rushing score of the season, Williams has been a stable source of usable production for almost two months now, and I see no reason to think that’ll change this week in Detroit. The Lions own the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, and given Williams’ strong role, he’s the most likely Denver player to benefit from that flaw.
My lone concern here is the possession count. The Broncos rank 22nd in average time of possession while the Lions rank fifth, putting this run game at risk, especially if Detroit can score with the consistency that I believe they will.
You take the good with the bad. At the end of the day, we’re looking at a talented back in a lead role against a defense that has struggled of late. Williams is a fine RB2, and it wouldn’t shock me if he gave us a stat line this week similar to what he produced last week in Los Angeles (91 yards and a touchdown).
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery: Ranking two RBs from the same offense feels dangerous, but when the offense is expected to light up the scoreboard against a leaky run defense, the risk is minimal, to say the least.
Last week, in a much more difficult matchup against the Bears, Montgomery handled the ball on three of Detroit’s first four plays, while Gibbs had an explosive run (36 yards) and a touchdown before the first three drives were over.
No defense in the league coughs up more rushing yards per game (or yards per carry) than the Broncos. And with them ranking bottom five in preventing red-zone trips, both Lions RBs should be started with confidence.
Gibbs held a 41-23 snap edge last week (24-8 advantage in routes per the Week 15 Cheat Sheet) and is the higher-ranked of the two. Yet, both should be more than capable of producing reliable numbers.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton: We are approaching Christmas in a season where Sutton has been healthy — he has three games without a touchdown. Three. All season.
Normally, I’m not a fan of relying on a player who is scoring at a rate like this (one of every 5.3 receptions, crazy for a receiver who had four touchdowns on 122 catches over the two seasons prior), but at this point, betting on him finding paydirt feels like betting on the sun to rise.
The math person in me does have to nitpick the volume — eight catches over the past three weeks is a dangerous way to live. That said, Sutton’s proven consistent in the splash-play department (30+ yard catch in five straight games) and is the unquestioned top option in this passing game the second they cross midfield.
The Lions have allowed a league-high 657 more air yards than YAC this season. They’re the only team with a number north of 600, putting Sutton in a good spot to continue on his run of unique stability (my WR18).
Jerry Jeudy: Want to see what would happen to Sutton if the scoring dried up? Just look at Jeudy’s player card — limited volume with an average catch rate.
Jeudy hasn’t cleared 65 receiving yards since Week 2. This team can have success without the player most assumed was their WR1 entering this season.
Jeudy had a touchdown wiped off the board in last week’s win over the Chargers, but close doesn’t count. I’m not calling Jeudy’s number in the fantasy playoffs. The matchup is fine, and with the deep ball likely being thrown consistently this week, I understand if you want to roll the dice.
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I’d rather go the Noah Brown (assuming C.J. Stroud is active) or Odell Beckham Jr. direction.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: It was a tough two-game road trip for St. Brown (five catches on 15 targets for 70 yards), but if you’re considering anything besides locking him in, you’re doing this fantasy thing wrong.
With Goff projected to rebound, his WR1 should follow suit in a major way. St. Brown has scored in each of Detroit’s past three wins (and in five of their past six), a trend that could continue this week.
St. Brown lands inside my top 10 this week because that’s where he lives every week. That’s not changing down the stretch this season, and I don’t see it changing at any point in 2024, either.
Josh Reynolds: He’s scored in two of his past three games, but Reynolds hasn’t earned five targets in a game since Week 4. If you want to get creative with how you bet on Goff in a Saturday DFS contest, be my guest, but Reynolds is in no position to challenge for Flex consideration in season-long leagues.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta: Stop it. You’ve been spoiled up to this point by what LaPorta has given you — you can survive a slow game.
- Averages vs. CHI: 2.5 catches for 20.5 yards and zero TDs
- Averages vs. rest of NFL: 5.5 catches for 60.1 yards and 0.5 TDs
With four top-three finishes and seven top-10 weeks, Detroit’s rookie deserves to be locked into all lineups.
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The Broncos rank 25th in yards-per-pass allowed, and with no secondary receiver on this offense earning consistent looks, LaPorta’s combination of volume and athleticism creates an elite floor/ceiling profile.
Should You Start Russell Wilson or Desmond Ridder?
I don’t mind Ridder as a desperation streamer, but with similar rushing potential and seven multi-TD pass games this season, I lean toward Wilson. Also working in favor of Denver’s veteran is a game that I expect to see points on the board, thus encouraging him to be aggressive.
Give me the better scoring environment against a struggling defense in this one. Wilson is flirting with my top 12 at the position this week.
Should You Start David Montgomery or Chuba Hubbard?
The volume of Hubbard makes for an interesting argument, but if the offense as a whole is struggling to get into the scoring position, how much value do those carries realistically have?
We know Montgomery is going to get the scoring opportunities when Detroit is close to the goal line, and I expect that to be the case on more than a few drives this week. Montgomery is unlikely to challenge Hubbard in the touch department, but his quality of touch, in my opinion, is high enough to overlook that.
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