Not all NFL games are a work of art and with these two teams both coming off of blowout losses, this contest would certainly prove that true. But all NFL games do carry at least a little bit of value to us! The Denver Broncos fantasy football preview dives into the trust you can have in their passing game while the Chicago Bears fantasy outlook takes a look at their disappointing quarterback.
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Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
- Spread: Broncos -3
- Total: 46
- Broncos implied points: 24.5
- Bears implied points: 21.5
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: Wilson is very quietly one of five quarterbacks who have scored at least 15 fantasy points in each of the first three weeks this season. Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins are the others — congrats on finding the trivia answer!
He gets the pleasure of facing a defense that has allowed at least 18 fantasy points to the QB position in every game this season.
Wilson has embraced a YOLO attitude over the past two weeks (10.2 air yards per attempt, second highest in the league), and that has looked good on him in terms of fantasy potential. Of course, with that style of play comes inefficiencies (58.6% completion percentage) and a low floor if the big play isn’t connecting, but that’s a concern for another day.
For the first time this season, Wilson cracks my top 15 at the position. I still prefer the average projected outcome of guys like Geno Smith and Brock Purdy, but Wilson is firmly in that tier this week and offers a nice bit of upside for teams looking to swing for the fences.
Russell Wilson still has the flick of the wrist arm talent and play making ability on the run. This throw is 🔥 pic.twitter.com/iEVXfrUwWJ
— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) September 26, 2023
Justin Fields: No, a month ago, I didn’t think I would have Fields ranked as the QB2 in this game, but life comes at you fast.
His ranking 31st in completion percentage isn’t ideal, but if you told me that was going to be the case, I would have assumed he was attacking downfield, thus adding big pass play to his big run play fantasy profile, keeping him well within the “must start” tier of signal-caller.
That’s not the case. He’s a bottom-10 quarterback in aDOT, making his 58% completion rate downright appalling. The Bears finally let him loose on the ground last week (11 carries), and the funniest thing happened — the Kansas City Chiefs were ready for it. Imagine that. A quarterback who isn’t throwing the ball accurately or downfield doesn’t have room to run.
His physical tools give him top-five upside in any week, and maybe he capitalizes on that against a Broncos defense that saw the Dolphins score more touchdowns (10) than third-down situations (nine), but nothing he did in September suggests that is likely.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams: As it turns out, losing by 50 is bad for business when it comes to running back production. Go figure. The game script should be a little more friendly to Williams this week, and with a two-week sample size of him being utilized with workhorse intentions, it feels like a big week is inevitable.
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Believe it or not, Week 3 was Williams’ first game as a pro with both a 15-yard run and a 15-yard catch. With a promising role in a plus matchup, Williams deserves to be locked in as an RB2 in all formats and is very much in my DFS player pool for the main slate.
Samaje Perine: Perine got his hands on the ball 12 times in the season-opening loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, seemingly as a way to gauge the health of Williams. In the two games since, he’s been trusted with just nine touches and appears to be more of an ancillary piece to this offense than anything you can count on.
If you need the roster space to deal with injuries, Perine is certainly an option to cut.
Khalil Herbert: Herbert and I have had the same number of games with more than 10 carries since Halloween. We are also tied when it comes to the number of carries gaining more than 12 yards this season.
Spoiler alert: I’m 33 years old, 140 pounds soaking wet, and have a history of ankle injuries — not exactly a physical profile NFL backs want to draw comparisons to.
This summer, I cited Herbert’s explosion as a reason to take a chance on him as the lead back in this offense.
While I still think that is in his skill set, it doesn’t appear to be something he can access in this mess of a situation.
He is trending in the wrong direction for a dumpster fire of an offense with a promising back pushing him for reps. Keep him rostered, but he shouldn’t be near starting lineups.
Roschon Johnson: The rookie handled the first carry of the game for the Bears and finished with more carries than Herbert. Johnson came into Week 3 trending in a positive direction, and things have only gotten better for Derek Tate and the rest of Roschon’s fanbase.
We know that teams like to get a quick read on running backs with high levels of draft capital invested in them to squeeze as much value out of them as possible before their second contract. That makes the 0-3 start (-59 point differential) as good a reason to be looking to the future as any.
Herbert lost a fumble in the blowout loss to the Chiefs, and if this team wants any hope of winning games, they can’t give away possessions. I have Herbert ranked a touch higher this week, with the thought being that they give him one more chance in a winnable game. These two are very much in the same tier, and it’s a situation I’m actively looking to avoid.
Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy: In the laughter against the Dolphins, Jeudy was productive (five catches for 81 yards), and his fantasy stats would have looked better if he didn’t have a touchdown taken off the board due to an illegal shift. He seems to be rounding into form after the hamstring injury cost him some practice time this summer and lingered into Week 1.
I do worry that the floor will be low, given the recent risk-taking nature of how Wilson is playing and the number of downfield options on this offense, but much like Wilson, that is a concern for another day.
In this cushy spot, Jeudy is poised for his best day of the young season and projects as a WR2 for me in all formats.
Courtland Sutton: I’m not saying he will push Jeudy for the WR1 role in this offense, but I’m not saying he won’t. The industry as a whole wasn’t receptive to that idea this summer, but Sutton seems to have capitalized on the early missed time from Jeudy to develop a connection with Wilson.
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Not only was he the target of Wilson’s first pass last week, but he has a 73.9% catch rate this season and has scored in two of three games.
The TD last week came on a scramble drill where he was able to separate from Xavien Howard in the back of the end zone for a nice 12-yard score. That sort of play doesn’t happen without trust, and it held more value, in my opinion, than the fantasy points the play accumulated.
Sutton is pushing up my Week 4 rankings, and I currently have him ranked ahead of a pair of big-name receivers who are the clear WR1 on their respective teams Terry McLaurin (at PHI) and Mike Evans (at NO).
Marvin Mims: Mims went through the scouting process and was labeled as a big-play threat from day one and through three weeks, I think it is safe to say the scouts had this one right.
The rookie is averaging 27.9 yards per catch with a 24.6 aDOT (highest among players with more than five targets) and looks to be playing the game at a different speed when he gets a clean release.
The Broncos have liked what they’ve seen from Mims up to this point so much that they elected to hand him the ball on the third play last week. If head coach Sean Payton can scheme ways to get this kid the ball in space, he’s going to be a week-winning substitute in rather short order.
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The low snap count and high degree of difficulty of those deep passes keep him outside of my top 40, but if you’re in a spot where floor doesn’t matter, Mims is already one of the premier boom/bust options in the game.
DJ Moore: He entered the season atop my Moore rankings, and if things don’t look better this week, he might be my third favorite option with that surname moving forward.
He had a pair of 30-yard receptions on the first drive of Week 2.
Other than that, though, he has been a ghost this season.
I’m not here to assign blame because, honestly, I don’t care. I don’t care if it’s his fault, Fields’ fault, or the fault of the coaching staff. All I care about is production, and we aren’t getting much of it.
He scored in the late stages of the blowout loss last week, but backdoor value isn’t what we signed up for. Until this passing game shows any signs of life, Moore will be ranked outside of my top 30 at the position.
Darnell Mooney: He doesn’t matter. I used to chase his production the way I’m ready to chase that of Mims, but those days are gone. Mooney scored against the Packers in Week 1, and that was fun, but we’re talking about a deep threat in a conservative offense with an inaccurate quarterback.
At the moment, I’m more likely to hold a second D/ST on my roster (something I haven’t done since middle school) than to burn a roster spot on this profile.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: As this passing game flounders, Kmet’s ability to build on the promise he showed last season has gone with it. The Golden Domer has yet to reach 45 yards in a game this season and has seen his target count drop with each passing week.
Don’t put yourself through the pain of investing in this passing game if you don’t have to — Kmet ranks outside of my top 15 at the position this week.
Should You Start Jerry Jeudy or George Pickens?
Jeudy appears to be rounding into game shape and with Russell Wilson rediscovering some touch on the deep ball, I prefer him in a good matchup over Pickens this week.
With Diontae Johnson sidelined, George Pickens has seen plenty of work, but with the absence of roster support, those targets have been something of empty calories. I don’t mind Pickens, with the thought being that his talent and volume can pay off, but Jeudy enters this week in a great spot with a quarterback playing at a higher level.
Should You Start Justin Fields or Jameis Winston?
It’s a crazy world in which we live where a backup quarterback is being lumped in with the breakout fantasy story of 2022, but here we are.
I’m siding with Jameis Winston in his revenge matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not only is his game fantasy-friendly, but he also has a roster to maximize his style of play in a matchup that encourages risk-taking.
Listen, you know the floor is low for both (it always has been with Winston and, if you’ve rostered Fields this year, you’re well aware), so I’ll take my chances on the roster that I think is more tailored to the quarterback in New Orleans in an advantageous matchup.