The Denver Broncos‘ fantasy preview looks at their WR room, while the Buffalo Bills‘ outlook evaluates the fantasy football value of James Cook.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -7.5
- Total: 47
- Broncos implied points: 19.8
- Bills implied points: 27.3
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen: It’s often said that your true self is revealed during adversity. Well, we are getting that in Allen, and fantasy managers should be thrilled. In his first six games this season, he recorded 22 rush attempts. In the last three, he tallied the same amount of attempts (22).
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
Allen has a rushing score in three straight games — and six of his past seven. We know the passing opportunities are going to be there — he’s had 25+ completions in three straight — but if the rushing continues to trend up, Allen has the chance to be a league winner.
Some will point to the fact that he has thrown an interception in five straight games and use that as a reason to worry about his play. “His play” is concerning, but “his play” and “his fantasy production” are not the same. He makes plenty of questionable decisions, but his aggression is what makes him an asset, and he’s trending in the right direction at the right time.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams: Locked and loaded, Denver’s promising young back got 30 touches in the surprise win over the Chiefs in Week 8 with 98 yards and a TD, and he held up well. The efficiency wasn’t great (3.1 ypc), but the involvement is what we are targeting, given the raw talent of Williams.
He has at least three catches in three of his past four games and has a 15-plus yard rush in five of his past six per the Week 10 Cheat Sheet. This Bills defense isn’t what it was at the beginning of the season from a health perspective, and that gives me exactly zero hesitation in starting Williams following the bye.
James Cook: It’s not you — it’s the role. Cook is a good player, but the Bills just aren’t using him in a fantasy-friendly fashion. RB Latavius Murray worked in for 26 snaps (Cook: 32 snaps), but the majority of those came in two-minute situations.
Cook can be as efficient as he wants, but without access to the cheap production that comes in two-minute situations or goal-line touches, his ceiling isn’t high enough to be a true difference-maker. He’s a starter in all formats against the worst per-carry rush defense in the league. But be careful in setting your expectations too high.
Leonard Fournette: The six-year veteran was signed to the practice squad last week and wasn’t on the active roster for the loss in Cincinnati (not everyone is Minnesota Vikings, QB Josh Dobbs, after all). With over 1,600 touches on his NFL résumé, “Lombardi Lenny’s” legs likely lack longevity, but he can give this team a boost down the stretch.
He’s a fine-depth signing in real life, but there’s no action to take in fantasy circles.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton: Remember back in the Washington write-up when I complained about RB Brian Robinson’s reliance on scoring and how it’s a dangerous way to live, but he’s defying regression models by cashing in weekly?
Sutton is the receiver version of Robinson. He has scored in three straight games and six of eight, despite being held under 50 yards in four of his past five and pacing for just 70 catches. He has been running extremely hot in terms of scoring, and while his athleticism has made that production possible, scoring once every 7.7 targets is unsustainable.
He’s a live play against a Bills defense that I don’t trust, but there is the scent of a Ponzi scheme when trying to project forward.
Jerry Jeudy: This summer, Jeudy was drafted as a receiver who could flirt with a WR2 ranking consistently, and yet, his next top-25 finish at the position will be his first. He’s been held under 65 yards in each of his past five games and has underwhelmed consistently.
Is there light at the end of the tunnel? He scored his first touchdown of the season before the Week 9 bye, and that’s a good start. In theory, this could be a good bounce-back spot for his volume (current pace: 66 catches). Denver is a significant underdog against a banged-up Bills defense, but this would appear to be more of a Sutton spot.
Through nine weeks, the Bills own the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT, and Jeudy’s aDOT is 33.3% higher than that of Sutton. Jeudy checks in as a low-end Flex play for me, while Sutton is more in the WR2 conversation.
Stefon Diggs: It’s amazing that no matter the version of Allen we get, Diggs’s numbers are there. He has a touchdown or a dozen targets in seven straight games and seems inevitable if you watch this offense for more than five minutes. Diggs may not post the best statistical season at the position, but his week-over-week consistency is second to no one.
Gabe Davis: It was too easy — simply too easy. Everything from Davis’ impressive Week 8 pointed in the direction of a maturing young receiver in an explosive offense.
“He’s my WR18 this week,” I said just seven days ago, with the utmost confidence, feeling that the Bills had finally unlocked their WR2.
Then, Lucy pulled the football away from Charlie Brown. You know it’s coming, but it hurts a little bit more every time you fall for the same shenanigans.
Davis was targeted twice on Sunday night against the Bengals. Both were high-risk, high-reward looks. One was intercepted, and the other fell harmlessly into the end zone. If he catches both, we are looking at a double-digit point performance, but he caught neither and burnt you in a major way.
In this world of change and growth, we can always count on Davis to be what he is. How lucky do you feel this week? He was on the field plenty last week (54 of 58 snaps), and that fuels the process of wanting to bet on him. He might pay off.
MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 10
I could make the case that working opposite CB Patrick Surtain II puts him in a good spot, but we know how this goes: does he or does he not make the big play? He’s just outside of my top 30 at the position this week as I sort through this PTSD — Post Traumatic Starting of Davis.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid: That’s three straight big games for Kincaid (23 catches for 221 yards and a TD) as his ascension up the rankings continues. He ran a route on 97.7% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks on Sunday night, and with Davis reverting to the all-or-nothing role, Kincaid is the second option in this pass-centric offense.
I don’t think he can catch Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta, but he’s making a strong case, and the role is going nowhere with Buffalo starter Dawson Knox injured.
Credit to you if you played the long game and held onto Kincaid during a bumpy first month of his career — you’ve got one of the six tight ends that can be started with confidence every week.
Should You Start Chris Godwin or Courtland Sutton?
Godwin’s volume has been empty of late, and the floor he once offered is lower now than it was. The downward-trending production is enough for me to side with Sutton and his one touchdown per 7.7 targets this season.
That scoring rate, of course, will not sustain, but this is a good spot for the short pass game, and Jeudy’s aDOT is 33.3% higher than that of Sutton. Look for him to add nice volume to a profile that carries decent TD equity, a combination that lands him inside of my top 20 at the position this week.
Should You Start George Pickens or Gabe Davis?
I slightly lean toward Pickens in this spot, but there is no denying the wide range of outcomes that come with starting either receiver.
With these boom/bust options, all we can ask for is opportunity, and I’m more comfortable with Pickens’ target floor. He should have had a touchdown last week against the Titans, a play that would have continued a trend of Pickens producing in Pittsburgh wins.
Before last week, he had reached at least 11.5 half-PPR points in each of the Steelers wins, and with them in a good spot to win this week, I expect him to push double digits. That’s a favorable projection compared to the random number generator that is Davis.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!