The Denver Broncos are starting the 2024 season in the Bo Nix era after a trade for Russell Wilson drastically failed to pan out.
During his tenure with the Broncos, Wilson averaged -0.06 EPA (Expected Points Added) per drop back, which ranks 30th out of 40 quarterbacks with over 350 attempts in that span. For a quarterback of that caliber who got traded for multiple first-round picks, that is not a great return on investment.
The Broncos missed the playoffs in both seasons. Sean Payton was hired in 2023 and will be on board this season to help fix things, choosing Nix as his team’s new leader.
Denver Broncos Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
- Super Bowl Odds: +30000
- AFC Odds: +15000
- AFC West Odds: +1800
- Win Total: 5.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
- To Make/Miss the Playoffs: +650/-1000
Broncos Offense
Despite frustration at quarterback, the 2023 Broncos were right around average on offense. Per TruMedia, they were 19th in overall EPA, 21st in passing, and 17th in rushing.
Most of this was due to a solid offensive line, which was ranked seventh by PFF. Per ESPN, Denver ranked eighth and third in pass-block and run-block win rate as a team. The unfortunate part of this is losing Lloyd Cushenberry III at center.
Looking at other positions, Jerry Jeudy leaving gives Nix one of the worst skill position groups in the league.
MORE: NFL Super Bowl Odds
Out of 165 players with over 250 routes run in 2023, only Courtland Sutton (49th) ranked in the top 50 in yards per route run.
The Broncos added Troy Franklin in the draft, but he alone is not enough to make this an average group.
Broncos Defense
The Broncos’ defense was arguably the team’s downfall in 2023. Ranking 27th in defensive EPA, the Broncos lost Josey Jewell and Justin Simmons; safety Brandon Jones is hoping to be Simmons’ replacement.
In the second half of the season last year, they improved to eighth overall in defensive EPA. The caveat is that this was against only four playoff teams and three games against the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots.
One Betting Trend To Know
While only a two-season sample size, teams that are coached by Payton and not quarterbacked by Drew Brees hit the under.
Even more interesting, those teams hit the under by just one game. In 2021, the Saints were projected at 9.5 victories and had nine wins. In 2023, the Broncos were projected at 8.5 victories and had eight wins.
Best Bet for Broncos in 2024
Six wins is difficult for a team with little talent. Their best player is Patrick Surtain II, and cornerback play varies a lot from year to year. I was not a big fan of Nix coming out of college. Per PFF, 162 college quarterbacks had 120 or more dropbacks in 2023. Nix ranked 157th in average depth of target. While that works for Oregon, who will he check down to at the NFL level? I like the Broncos to go under 5.5 wins (+105).
Ben Rolfe’s Broncos Best Bet
Pick: Broncos to score under 330.5 total points (-115 on DraftKings)
After releasing Wilson, drafting Nix, and adding both Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in the offseason, the Broncos’ offense is a big question mark. They also traded away their second-best pass catcher, Jeudy, so the offense should be set to take a pretty big step back this season.
Last season, the Broncos scored 357 points, with their offense and defense ranking 22nd and 21st in terms of yards per attempt, respectively. However, when it came to passing touchdowns, the Broncos were eighth offensively with 28, which is a number we expect to reduce considerably after the quarterback change.
KEEP READING: NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
While Wilson was by no means an elite quarterback last year, he did a good job scoring touchdowns relative to the rest of the Broncos’ offensive performance.
A reduction of 30 points is essentially just five fewer touchdowns in 2024, and that very much feels in play for what could be the lowest-scoring offense in the league.