Fantasy football managers can pour hours into draft research and prep, but early-season injuries can send the best-laid plans to the trash.
Puka Nacua’s PCL sprain has had that effect on every league, as his managers have scrambled to replace the Los Angeles Rams‘ second-year wide receiver.
Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson both saw enhanced roles in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions after Nacua’s injury. Looking ahead, which option is more trustworthy entering Los Angeles’ Week 2 trip to Arizona?
Which WR Should You Choose from Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson in Week 2?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Robinson is the player to start. His projected 7.6 points include three catches for 31 receiving yards. That outperforms the consensus projection for Johnson (6.6 points).
While Johnson’s inexperience in the Rams’ offense makes him a risky option, I see him as the higher upside option in Week 2. Therefore, he’s the receiver fantasy managers should turn to between these two.
Robinson’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Robinson was the third wide receiver in the Rams’ offense last year, finishing fifth on the team with 371 receiving yards. In reality, he was among the lower-volume rotational receivers in the NFL, earning just 7% of the Rams’ targets despite playing in 16 games. That ranked 95th out of 117 WRs to run at least 200 routes last season.
Robinson’s target rate jumped up to 15% with Nacua’s injury in Week 1, but his stat line of four receptions for 42 yards was underwhelming. More critically, Robinson does not appear to be much of an option near the red zone, capping his touchdown upside.
Since joining the Rams in 2023, Robinson has a total of 10 red-zone targets (one on Sunday vs. the Lions), catching four of those passes. That 40% catch rate in the red zone is well below the league average (54%) for WRs since the start of 2023.
As a known commodity in LA, Robinson will likely see a starter’s share of snaps while Nacua is sidelined. However, his general lack of touchdown or yardage upside makes him less appealing than a potential wild card.
Johnson’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Johnson had a promising start as a fifth-round pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, carving out a role on the Super Bowl-winning 2020 team. But Johnson struggled to catch on and had two receptions combined between the 2022 and 2023 seasons, spending most of last year on the Rams’ practice squad.
As such, his Week 1 performance was jarring to many viewers.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
Johnson recorded five receptions for 79 yards against the Lions, both second on the team behind Cooper Kupp and more than he produced the prior two seasons combined. Johnson demonstrated the ability to create for the Rams, picking up a team-high 65 yards after the catch. That was tied with A.J. Brown for the third-most YAC for any wide receiver in Week 1.
Looking ahead, Johnson’s usage suggests that the Rams view him as a potential Nacua fill-in.
Johnson ran 79% of his routes from out wide in Week 1 (with all five of his receptions coming from a wide alignment), comparable to Nacua’s career rate of 70%. Robinson, on the other hand, ran 60% of his snaps out wide in Week 1.
Since last season, the Arizona Cardinals have allowed 9.2 yards per attempt to receivers lined up out wide — the fourth-worst in the NFL.
While Johnson has much to prove after not maintaining a rotational receiver spot since 2021, his promising Week 1 showing makes him the more promising dart-throw option in deeper leagues among Rams receivers.
Kyle Soppe’s Week 2 Fantasy Outlook for Robinson and Johnson
With Nacua sidelined for the next month, the WR2 role in Los Angeles is wide open. Will it matter?
If Kupp vacuums in targets at the absurd rate that he did on Sunday night, no. But I believe that the usage patterns we saw against Detroit were more the result of needing to adjust on the fly than a desire to recreate Kupp’s historic season.
Johnson made the splash play among the “other” receivers in the opener, but he was largely inefficient otherwise. That’s not to say Robinson was great, but we did see him score in four straight games last year as he demonstrated confidence in that WR2 role.
I prefer Robinson this week, and barring extreme splits, I think that’ll be the case for the entirety of Nacua’s absence. He is a top-40 play for me this week, and I think it’s a real conversation with him and a suddenly risky play in Jayden Reed, assuming that Jordan Love is sidelined.