This is it, folks. The fantasy football semifinals are upon us. Whether you won last week or enjoyed the free pass, you now need a defense for Week 16. We have you covered.
All stats are as of prior to Sunday of Week 15 and courtesy of TruMedia.
1) Buffalo Bills (vs. NE)
Two weeks ago, the Bills did allow 44 points to the Rams, which is…not great. But this is still the ninth-highest-scoring fantasy defense in points per game — the Patriots are the fifth-most-favorable matchup for opposing defenses.
Drake Maye looks like a future star in the NFL. However, right now, he takes too many sacks. Maye’s 8.9% sack rate is 29th in the league among qualified quarterbacks. The Bills will also be heavy favorites, likely presenting a negative game script for the Patriots, creating plenty of opportunities for turnovers.
2) Green Bay Packers (vs. NO)
We are going to be picking on the Saints for the remainder of the season, as long as Derek Carr remains out. Now, to be fair, this was written before we got to see how Jake Haener performed in his first career start. My assumption is it didn’t go particularly well.
The Packers entered Week 15 13th in the league in sacks. Their 12 interceptions are tied for eighth-most in the league. In Haener’s lone game with significant action, he dropped back to pass 20 times and took two sacks. This one is not likely to go well for him.
3) Atlanta Falcons (vs. NYG)
The Giants are the offensive gift that keeps on giving for opposing defenses. Drew Lock took eight sacks and threw two picks in his two starts. Facing him would be plenty good for the Falcons. Fortunately, it may be even better if Tommy DeVito is granted another start.
In his lone start, DeVito took four sacks. Last year, in what was essentially seven games played, DeVito took a staggering 37 sacks.
It is worth noting that Atlanta entered Week 14 last in the league in sacks. But typically, quarterbacks prone to sacks will continue taking them, even when they face defenses with not particularly good pass rushes. Either way, the Giants will be heavy road underdogs, which is what we want from our defense.
4) Cincinnati Bengals (vs. CLE)
It speaks volumes about the caliber of defenses this week that the worst defense in the NFL is ranked fourth. We’ve seen the Bengals work before, though. They were one of the top-scoring defenses in Week 7 against Deshaun Watson and in Week 9 against Aidan O’Connell.
GENO STONE PICK-6 FOR THE BENGALS
📺: #CINvsTEN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/3SmT93tZ9n— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Jameis Winston is going to score points against them. We know that. But we also know Winston is prone to turnovers. He entered Week 14 with three pick-sixes in his last two games. Winston has turned the ball over 10 times in six starts. That’s good enough for me.
If Dorian Thompson-Robinson starts, that will lower the Bengals’ touchdown upside, but will likely result in them giving up fewer points.
5) Las Vegas Raiders (vs. JAX)
This is a tough one to swallow. The Raiders entered Week 14 as the second-lowest scoring defense in fantasy. Once again, it’s entirely about the matchup.
Mac Jones has thrown five interceptions across his three starts. He’s also taken five sacks.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have been getting to the quarterback lately. It will be unfortunate if Maxx Crosby is unable to go, but either way, the Raiders entered Week 14 with nine sacks in their last two games. In the absence of great defenses in good matchups, we must settle for poor defenses in great matchups.
6) Minnesota Vikings (at SEA)
The Vikings are such a tricky defense to trust. They’ve had some dominant performances and some complete disasters. Most recently, they’ve been struggling, allowing 21, 22, and 27 points over their last three ahead of Week 14.
Even in immense positive game script against a floundering Kirk Cousins, the Vikings only sacked him once.
On the other side, the Seahawks have also been a Jekyll and Hyde team. They started the season winning three straight, then lost five of their next six, then won four straight.
Geno Smith has been more good than bad, but he’s also prone to meltdowns, posting three multi-interception games. His 7.9% sack rate is 24th in the league, which meshes well with the Vikings’ 40 sacks, fourth in the league. At the very least, they should have a solid floor.
7) Indianapolis Colts (vs. TEN)
The good news is that your competition for defensive streamers is reduced, with only four teams remaining (unless you go the full Week 18). That’s important since we’re at the seventh-ranked defense, and we already don’t feel great about them.
The Colts are an average defense. They’re middle of the pack in fantasy points per game, sacks, and interceptions.
On the other hand, Will Levis has the worst sack rate among active starting quarterbacks at 12.5%. He’s also prone to turnovers, with 13 in his 10 starts. You can certainly do worse.
8) Detroit Lions (at CHI)
The last time the Lions played the Bears, they won 23-20. While they didn’t force any turnovers, they did sack Caleb Williams five times. The No. 1 overall pick has been up and down in his rookie year. He has the potential to make the Lions defense a bad start, but also is a pretty safe quarterback to stream defenses against.
Williams’ sack rate is 11.4%, trailing only Will Levis among active starting quarterbacks. While he hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6, the sack floor is good enough to start the Lions this week if they’re the best option you have.
9) Arizona Cardinals (at CAR)
The Cardinals had been playing quite well on defense before surrendering 30 points and recording no stats against the Seahawks in Week 14. Prior to that, they had recorded five or more sacks in three of their last four games.
By the time you read this, you’ll know if they got back on track at home against the Patriots. Assuming they did, you can consider them on the road against the Panthers.
While Bryce Young and the Panthers have been playing better, they’re still an average matchup, at worst. Young has just one game with multiple touchdown passes all season.
10) Los Angeles Rams (at NYJ)
The Rams are hot right now. But their last two games were two very different types of wins, which makes them a hard team to read. They beat the Bills in an epic 44-42 shootout. Then, they defeated the 49ers in a game where neither team scored a touchdown.
The Jets are one of the worst teams in football. Aaron Rodgers looks like a man that should have retired two years ago. Since Week 8, when facing quarterbacks not named Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, the Rams have registered at least three sacks in all but one game. The Jets should be able to make sure this isn’t a total disaster.
11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at DAL)
The Cowboys’ offense has looked surprisingly competent over the past three games, scoring 24, 27, and 20 points from Weeks 12-14. Meanwhile, the Bucs allow the third-most passing yards per game. They’ll probably give up points, but they should be able to take down Cooper Rush a couple of times.
Rush has been sacked 10 times in five starts. He’s also turned the ball over five times over that span. You can do worse.
12) Jacksonville Jaguars (at LV)
By the end of Week 15, I imagine the Jaguars will have surpassed the Ravens as the league’s worst pass defense in terms of passing yards allowed. So, why start them? There’s a chance they will be facing Desmond Ridder.
Last season, Ridder appeared in 15 games. He threw 12 touchdowns against 12 interceptions and lost seven fumbles. He was sacked 31 times.
That’s the good. The bad is that the Raiders will likely be favored and be able to avoid a negative game script, allowing them to lean on Sincere McCormick and the running game. As we know, rushing is bad for defensive scoring in fantasy because the only possible stat is forcing a fumble. The Jaguars are not an inspiring option.
13) Philadelphia Eagles (at WAS)
Starting defenses against Jayden Daniels is not exactly what you want to be doing. But the Eagles held the Commanders to 18 points when these teams last met, eight of which came during garbage time.
The Eagles have been a very good defense all season. Their pass-defense success rate ranks fifth in the league. On the ground, they allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game. They’re a passable option, but one unlikely to put up big numbers.
14) Tennessee Titans (at IND)
We have reached the portion of the program where you really don’t want to start any of these defenses. The Titans have been the seventh-worst fantasy defense. They’re tied for 25th in sacks and are facing a quarterback in Anthony Richardson who, for all his struggles, does not take sacks. Richardson’s 4.9% sack rate is seventh-best in the league.
15) Miami Dolphins (vs. SF)
If we get the version of the 49ers’ offense we saw last week, perhaps this is too low for the Dolphins. But they were pegged as a solid streaming option two weeks ago against the Jets, and they gave up 26 points while recording just three sacks.
The Dolphins are the sixth-lowest-scoring fantasy defense. They’ve recorded two sacks or fewer in seven games this season. The 49ers’ 49% neutral game script run rate is the fourth-highest in the league. The opportunities for stats are unlikely to be there this week.
16) San Francisco 49ers (at MIA)
The 49ers were supposed to have a good defense. Instead, it’s merely been average. They came into Week 15 ranking 15th in fantasy points per game.
The Dolphins have not been an offense to target while Tua Tagovailoa is on the field. They’ve scored 30+ points in three of their last four, and Tagovailoa’s 5.2% sack rate is eighth-best in the league.
17) New York Jets (vs. LAR)
The Jets have allowed 26+ points over their last three games entering Week 15. They’ve fallen apart defensively since firing Robert Saleh.
With a healthy Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, the Rams are averaging 24.5 points per game. Matthew Stafford doesn’t turn the ball over, throwing just seven interceptions on the season.
Since Week 4, the Jets have given fantasy managers two weeks in which they would have been a good start. This is unlikely to be the third.
18) Carolina Panthers (vs. ARI)
The Panthers rank dead last in pressure rate. When the Cardinals drop back to pass, Kyler Murray should have all day. That doesn’t bode well for their chances of recording any sacks.
The real problem is the Panthers have the league’s worst run defense. They entered Week 15 having allowed the most rushing yards per game by a whopping 23 yards…per game! James Conner is going to run all over them.
19) Washington Commanders (vs. PHI)
We saw this matchup once already. The Commanders allowed 26 points with their only defensive stats being two sacks.
The only two games in which the Commanders were a good defensive start were against Deshaun Watson and Andy Dalton. Do not start them against Jalen Hurts.
20) Seattle Seahawks (vs. MIN)
We now live in a world where starting defenses against Sam Darnold is a bad idea. The only saving grace is Darnold’s sack rate is 9.4%, 30th in the league.
Seattle has had some big performances recently, most notably against the Jets and Cardinals. But Sunday probably didn’t go well against the Packers, and the Vikings are averaging 29.5 points per game over their last four.
21) New York Giants (at ATL)
Starting a defense against Kirk Cousins has been a very good move recently. He entered Week 15 with eight interceptions and zero touchdown passes in four straight games.
The problem is the Giants may not have an opportunity to get after Cousins, as the Falcons can just run all day.
The Giants allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game. Their 4.9 yards per attempt allowed is third-worst in the league. The Falcons starting running back is Bijan Robinson.
22) Chicago Bears (vs. DET)
When these teams last met, the Bears actually held the Lions to 23 points, really clamping down in the second half. Yet, they only recorded two sacks and one fumble recovery.
Outside of the Texans debacle when he threw five interceptions, Goff has protected the football very well. Meanwhile, since Week 8, the Bears have a total of three interceptions.
23) Dallas Cowboys (vs. TB)
The Cowboys’ season essentially came to an end when they lost to the Bengals on Monday Night Football. This defense has not been the same menacing unit it was a year ago.
Dallas is still top five in pressure rate, but they’ve become a massive run funnel. Their 4.8 yards per carry allowed is bottom four in the league. They’ve given up at least 26 points in seven of their last eight and the one time they didn’t was against the Giants. Now, they get a Bucs offense that is one of the best in the league.
24) Cleveland Browns (at CIN)
The Browns are facing a Bengals team that only loses games because of its defense. Offensively, they are a juggernaut. Joe Burrow would be an MVP candidate if not for his team’s record.
Cincinnati is the fifth-worst matchup for opposing defenses.
25) New Orleans Saints (at GB)
The Saints allow a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry. The Packers are second in the league in neutral game script run rate. Green Bay will look to keep this game on the ground, which is not a recipe for defensive success.
26) New England Patriots (at BUF)
Josh Allen is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP. The Bills will likely be two-touchdown favorites at home in a game where they should score at will.
