One could make an argument that San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel Sr. is the best offensive weapon in the NFL. His productivity as a receiver coupled with his dynamic explosiveness as a ball carrier makes him one of the most interesting fantasy football studies on an annual basis.
In a crowded but high-powered 49ers’ offense, what can fantasy managers expect from Samuel in 2024?
Deebo Samuel Sr.’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 245.9
- Receiving Yards: 942.7
- Receiving TDs: 4.8
- Receptions: 63.1
- Rushing Yards: 276.8
- Rushing TDs: 5.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Samuel This Year?
The label ‘unicorn’ in fantasy football currently belongs to Samuel, given his unique skill set, excellent per-touch production, and versatile role in one of the league’s premier offenses.
When you look strictly at Samuel’s receiving production, the profile isn’t all that impressive.
Deebo Samuel 2023 Receiving Stats (Positional Rank)
- Targets: 89 (44th)
- Receptions: 60 (39th)
- Receiving Yards: 892 (32nd)
- Receiving TDs: 7 (17th)
- Air Yards: 586 (82nd)
- End-Zone Targets: 3 (86th)
These receiving totals may not be very flattering, but omitting Samuel’s rushing production would be the equivalent of doing the same with Jalen Hurts when analyzing him as a fantasy asset at the QB position.
Deebo Samuel 2023 Rushing Stats (Positional Rank)
- Rushing Attempts: 37 (1st)
- Rushing Yards: 225 (1st)
- Rushing TDs: 5 (1st)
If you need further proof how unique his rushing role is with the 49ers, Samuel saw more carries from inside the five-yard line in 2023 than New York Jets RB Breece Hall, who finished the year as the RB2 overall in full-PPR formats.
The two drawbacks to projecting Samuel for gaudy totals are how crowded the Niners’ offense is with exceptional playmakers and his own durability concerns.
This offense features Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk alongside Samuel — which makes it very difficult to project who is going to produce on a weekly basis.
To make matters even muddier, the team invested the No. 31 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft in Florida WR Ricky Pearsall. He is a versatile playmaker in his own right, who could factor into the offense in some capacity this season. Admittedly though, his skill set probably threatens Aiyuk’s role more so than Samuel’s.
Additionally, Samuel has never played a full regular season over his five years in the NFL. He has missed 17 games due to injury during his career.
There is no doubt Samuel is dynamic and explosive contributor to this high-powered offense. His per-touch efficiency is outstanding, and he’s one of the few legitimate threats to find the end zone every time he touches the ball. Yet, he has topped 65 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving just once over his first five years.
Samuels’ fantasy ceiling rivals almost any receiver in the league, but it comes with a lower floor in full-PPR formats than most would like to admit.
Samuel’s ADP sits at No. 26 overall in the third round as the WR14 off the board in both full-PPR and non-PPR leagues. I find this to be a pretty big oversight.
Samuel’s low reception totals but higher total yardage and TD potential saddle him with plenty of production volatility at the WR position with regard to scoring formats.
Samuel finished the 2023 season as the WR7 overall in non-PPR formats, but he dropped all the way to WR15 in full-PPR formats. One could make a legitimate argument that Samuel should be the WR7 off the board behind Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown in non-PPR leagues.
I highly recommend you adjust your rankings for Samuel in accordance with the format of your league.