San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel Sr. caught a career-best seven touchdowns in 2023, but he failed to reach 900 receiving yards for the fourth time in five seasons.
With Brandon Aiyuk’s ascent, does Samuel’s unique role carry more risk than reward? Or is his usage on the ground a floor stabilizer that fantasy football managers should embrace?
Should You Select Deebo Samuel Sr. at His Current ADP?
ADP: 34th Overall (WR17)
Samuel is coming off the board as WR17 this season and is a popular pick in the beginning stages of Round 3. Again, that can make sense, but it’s generally not the direction I’m going.
That means taking on his risk over players that I perceive to have a higher weekly floor with similar annual upside, such as DJ Moore or Mike Evans.
Aiyuk and Samuel are both being drafted in the same neighborhood, and I’d confidently go with Aiyuk in the decision between the two 49ers receivers. The depth of the WR position across the NFL has me taking my upside shots later in the draft rather than taking on risk in the first few rounds.
In 2023, Samuel averaged under 70 total yards per game without significant PPR upside and an unlucky touchdown season (five in 13 games on 98 touches). That downside, in my opinion, is more in play than anything close to the upside we saw in 2021 (1,770 scrimmage yards with 14 touchdowns).
Samuel’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
As good as Samuel is, I worry that he is nearing the point where he is more impactful to the 49ers than to your fantasy team.
- 2021: 7.6 targets per game
- 2022: 7.2 targets per game
- 2023: 5.9 targets per game
Of course, all we care about is total production, so we can’t leave out the fact that Samuel has run for 822 yards and 16 touchdowns over those three seasons. But will that age well?
The long Deebo Samuel TD from yesterday. I'm not sure you'll see a defender run himself further out of the play on a fake all season. pic.twitter.com/tx3mEr61D3
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 15, 2023
With the season on the line in the playoffs, Samuel ran six times for 15 yards and zero touchdowns in three games. Christian McCaffrey is going to command plenty of work out of the backfield, and by drafting Isaac Guerendo out of Louisville in the fourth round this season, the 49ers are trending in the direction of prioritizing a healthy set of skill players for the postseason.
Great for them, bad for us.
It’s been pretty clear that Aiyuk has the better connection with quarterback Brock Purdy. And with Aiyuk two years younger than Samuel, it’s hard to imagine that trend reversing.
That said, Samuel remains nearly impossible to tackle, and that is always going to fuel fantasy upside, even if the weekly floor is intimidating.
Given what we’ve seen in the Purdy era, it’s safe to pencil in Samuel for 1,000 total yards. But expecting anything close to Samuel’s league-winning 2021 season numbers isn’t wise.
In 2023, Samuel caught five of his seven touchdown passes in the first three weeks of December after going without a TD catch in the six games prior.
If you’re OK with taking on some risk and layering in a weekly floor around Samuel’s drafting, go for it. There’s nothing wrong with that. You just have to have a specific plan if you’re investing in San Francisco’s utility weapon.