San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel followed up a stellar 2021 season with a disappointing 2022. With increased touch competition, have we already seen the best of Samuel? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Deebo Samuel’s Fantasy Outlook
Two years ago, Samuel was arguably the single best value in fantasy football outside of Cooper Kupp. After an injury-shortened 2020, Samuel was largely an afterthought in fantasy drafts. He rewarded those who took a chance on him by putting together a spectacular 21.2 PPR points-per-game campaign, good for an overall WR3 finish.
Despite him obviously being really good at football, I was hesitant to buy a follow-up in 2022. That was largely due to extremely unsustainable efficiency.
Samuel led the NFL with 18.2 yards per reception. He amassed 1,405 receiving yards on just 77 catches. But the biggest outlier wasn’t even his receiving work; it was his rushing output.
The 49ers used Samuel as a quasi-running back, giving him 59 carries, which he turned into 365 yards. That wasn’t the issue, though. The real kicker is that he scored a whopping eight touchdowns on those 59 carries. That’s a touchdown every 7.3 carries. It was just not repeatable.
Last season, Samuel’s efficiency dipped. He was back to being an underneath guy. He went from 6.8 yards after the catch per target to 5.1. His yards per target dropped from a league-leading 11.7 to an 82nd-ranked 6.7. His yards per route run went from 3.24 to 1.88. Samuel averaged 13.0 ppg, which was still good for the second-best season of his career, but nowhere near 2021 levels.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Samuel at His ADP?
So, will the real Samuel please stand up? Is he the guy we saw last year, the 2021 version, or somewhere in between? To attempt to answer this question, we’re going to play a game of “one of these things is not like the other.”
Samuel has played four professional seasons. In those seasons, he’s averaged 12.5, 11.5, 21.2. and 13.0 ppg. I ask you, wise reader, which one stands out? We have three seasons, all within 1.5 ppg of each other, and a fourth that is 8.2 ppg above the second-best.
Now, Samuel has the added bonus of not only contending with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle for targets but one the best receiving backs in NFL history in Christian McCaffrey.
This is all in a low-volume passing offense that ran the ball at a 50% clip in a neutral game script last season, tied for the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Editor’s Note: Trey Lance has been traded to the Dallas Cowboys.
When I first reviewed ADP, I was stunned to see Samuel going in the third or fourth round. I assumed he would be going in the fifth. He currently has a WR16 ADP, No. 39 overall.
In my projections, I have Samuel totaling just 265 rushing yards and 1.7 rushing touchdowns. Through the air, I have him at 81 catches for 970 yards and five scores. While he did project out as my WR17 at 14.9 ppg, the gap between him at WR17 and my WR24 is less than a full ppg.
Since projections are not rankings, and I am not overly bullish on Samuel being able to beat his projection, I have Samuel ranked at WR23.
It is unlikely that fantasy managers will be overly disappointed with Samuel on their teams. However, his ADP sure feels like drafting him at his ceiling. I understand that objectively, his ceiling is technically what he did in 2021. But if we operate under the premise that he can’t do that again, which is where I fall, I don’t really see him doing much better than 14-15 ppg.
Those are certainly excellent numbers for a third-round pick, but if I overshot his projections at all, he’s going to disappoint as his ADP. As a result, Samuel is someone I’m only looking to draft at a discount. Otherwise, someone else can have him.