As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency continuing to roll on and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come.
Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the dynasty rules, let’s dive into the latest fantasy football value of San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel.
Deebo Samuel’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
Deebo Samuel slightly concerned me coming into last year simply due to the expectations which were placed upon him by the dynasty and redraft fantasy communities. In 2021, not only did he catch 77 of his 121 targets for 1,405 yards with six touchdowns, but Samuel also ran for 365 yards on 59 attempts with a staggering, record-setting eight touchdowns.
I view that as his ceiling, as the touchdown efficiency was off the charts. Samuel himself was saying he wanted to be used like a traditional wide receiver rather than the “wide back” position he was holding in San Francisco. Yet after he re-signed, he was okay with the offensive direction on which the team pitched him. And fantasy managers were still expecting the heavy rushing upside to continue.
Unfortunately, that set many up for disappointment in 2022. Finishing as the WR35 in PPR formats, Samuel played in 14 games, catching 56 of his 94 targets for 632 yards with two touchdowns and rushing 42 times for 232 yards and three more scores.
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He also dealt with injuries that didn’t help matters. Samuel missed Week 8 due to a hamstring injury and then missed Weeks 15 through 17 due to an MCL sprain and ankle injury. It’s also fair to throw Week 18 in as a missed game, as Samuel was only out there to get some preparation in for a looming playoff run.
But there’s a disturbing pattern for those holding on to Samuel in the Christian McCaffrey era. While sharing the field with McCaffrey in Weeks 10-14, he averaged 7.4 targets, 3.8 rushing attempts, 63 total yards, and 13.2 PPR points, largely thanks to a 22.4 PPR game against the Arizona Cardinals. He was a WR3 or worse in three of those five games, with two in the single digits.
The greatness of the 49ers’ offense is both a blessing and a curse in fantasy. If someone wants to take away Samuel, that’s fine because San Fran has Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. There is an answer for everything, and with the defenses generally placing more attention on Samuel, he’s the first player that will be impacted from a dynasty perspective by that trend.
Deebo Samuel Fantasy Ranking
I don’t see a No. 2-overall finish in Samuel’s range of outcomes again, but I also expect better than WR35. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle, with Samuel as a mid-WR2. Unfortunately, for those who acquired him last season, you’ve taken a hit in value. I certainly prefer the price he is at now.
Currently, Samuel is ranked as the WR17 in PPR formats. In Superflex leagues, where quarterbacks see an increase in value due to positional scarcity, Samuel is the No. 43-overall player.
MORE: Wide Receiver Dynasty Rankings 2023
I’d be looking to sell Samuel for a solid return, as investing in the 49ers’ receivers will likely cause quite a few headaches with McCaffrey on their roster, given that any week, someone could be written out of the game plan.
I wouldn’t sell low by any means, as his name alone carries value. But I would entertain some offers for Samuel as he enters his age-27 season. Watching him turn into more of a WR3 has me very concerned, even if there will be good games mixed in.