The Conference Championship round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means only a handful of games remain in the season — leaving us limited time to find value in fantasy football and NFL betting. As we continue our tour around the Conference Championships while examining individual player values for prop bets and DFS, let’s see if Deebo Samuel helps our case.
Deebo Samuel’s DFS value vs. Rams
“There’s not another receiver in this league that plays like me and do what I do.” That was a quote from Samuel on Friday via Kayla Burton of NFL Network. And do you know what? He’s absolutely correct. What Samuel has done this year has been nothing short of remarkable. Not only did he record 1,405 receiving yards and 6 TDs, but he was at times San Francisco’s best rusher, as well. He rushed 59 times for 365 yards and an NFL-record 8 touchdowns.
In his 18 games this year, Samuel has over 100 total yards in nine of them with just three games below 70. The consistency is otherworldly. While he has only seen 16.3% of the 49ers’ targets this postseason, he has seen 10 carries in each game. That makes Samuel less dependent on Jimmy Garoppolo for his DFS upside.
How did Samuel fare in the first two matchups?
The Rams are intimately aware of Samuel and the 49ers after being swept by them in the regular season. He had 5 carries, 36 rushing yards, and a rushing TD rushing, plus 5 receptions for 97 yards and a receiving TD in his first meeting with the Rams. Then, in the sequel, Samuel handled 8 carries for 45 yards and 1 TD, adding 4 catches for 95 yards in the passing game.
Obviously, Samuel is not cheap. He is the second-highest-priced receiver in DFS at $7,200, coming in $1,600 less than Cooper Kupp. Samuel took a shot to the knee last week and spent the rest of the second half in pain, which somewhat limited him. However, it should not impact him this weekend. Samuel is the pass catcher you can trust for the 49ers. Even if you want to run him as a single in DFS, I have no issue paying up for him.
Deebo Samuel prop bets this weekend
Samuel is all over the prop bet market. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Samuel’s rushing prop is at 39.5 (-115), with his receiving yardage at 53.5 (-115) and a 4.5-reception line (+100). Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, Samuel is 40.5 (-114) rushing and 51.5 (-114) yards receiving. Both sites are understandably high on his touchdown odds. Current prop bets have Samuel at -110 anytime on DraftKings (a +650 first TD score). On FanDuel, it’s also -110 anytime but slightly reduced for the first TD at +600.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]For me, the rushing is a bit too high for me to feel comfortable. The Rams are extremely quick laterally and have Jalen Ramsey, who is playing more in the slot. He attacks downhill in the Rams’ run fits. My main prop bet play will be Samuel’s receiving yardage at either 51.5 or 53.5. It’s what he does after the play that gives me confidence. He is No. 1 in the NFL in yards after the catch/reception at 10.3, so even if Garoppolo maintains a lower aDOT (average depth of target), Samuel can make it work after the ball is in his hands. I’ll take the over on this one.