DeAndre Hopkins enters his 11th NFL season and is coming off a year with the Arizona Cardinals in which he averaged 10-plus targets for the sixth time in his career. He has changed teams one other time (2020, Cardinals) during his Hall Of Fame career … he responded with a career-high 115 catches that season.
The Tennessee Titans have a run-first offense that has lacked a true game-breaking pass catcher for years, thus making this a difficult offense to project now that Nuk is in town.
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
DeAndre Hopkins’ Fantasy Outlook
There was no shortage of teams vying for the services of Hopkins this offseason, and Tennessee … well, Tennessee wasn’t the ideal landing spot for fantasy football purposes. Here’s a snapshot at some of the team’s offensive limitations in 2022:
- Pass TD%: 22nd
- Yards Per Play: 24th
- Time of Possession: 26th
- Pass Attempts: 30th
- Red Zone Drives: 31st
This offense has been carried by the broad shoulders of Derrick Henry in recent years, and that is likely to again be the case in 2023. This team looks awfully similar to 2022’s unit, with the exception of Hopkins. Head coach Mike Vrabel has had Ryan Tannehill under center for each of the past four seasons, and the 34-year-old QB will again be the man running this offense.
Flanking Hopkins will be Treylon Burks (18th overall pick in 2022), who’s coming off of an underwhelming rookie season, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (15.9 yards per catch in 2022). The WR room lacks experience with Robert Woods taking his talents to Houston, but there is upside in the young options.
That can also be said about the tight end position, where the Titans are expected to fully unleash Chigoziem Okonkwo. The 2022 fourth-rounder averaged 14.1 yards per catch last season, showcasing his athletic tools on more than a few occasions.
What Is Hopkins’ Upside in Tennessee?
Hopkins has been among the better playmakers in scoring situations for a decade now, but is this a spot where the 31-year-old can continue to produce? Last season, there were 85 players that were targeted at least five times in the end zone … and not a single one of them played for the Titans. The scoring equity figures to be capped, potentially a major problem when you consider what we saw last season.
The Cardinals fielded a similarly restricted offense (viable veteran RB and a lack of experienced pass catchers to attract attention), and opponents sold out to stop Hopkins. In 2022, just 3.1% of his targets came in the end zone, a rate that was in the Olamide Zaccheaus range (3.3%) and was well behind the rate he saw from his first two seasons in Arizona (9.8%).
Pro Football Network’s Jason Katz noted in his free agent recap report Tennessee’s 50% neutral-game-script-pass rate from a season ago, something that further highlights the low target ceiling upside. In theory, this offense could open up a bit with Hopkins giving them a dimension that they didn’t have last year, but counting on this offense to approach even league-average passing levels is quite optimistic.
If you’re looking for a little back-of-the-napkin math, I’ve got you covered. If you take the top-producing Titan receiver for every individual game last season and averaged them out, we are looking at 9.8 half-PPR points per game.
For reference, that would have checked in just behind Brandin Cooks and been WR37 (minimum 10 games played) in 2022. Even if you give that number a Hopkins boost of two PPG, we are still dealing with a fringe-top-25 producer at the position.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Hopkins at His ADP?
Hopkins’ ADP will continue to move as more drafts occur, but expecting him to produce WR2 (top-24) numbers is more than I’m willing to do. Could he get there? Of course, but if you’re drafting him in that range (the round four-to-five neighborhood), you’re counting on it. If we are talking receivers in new situations, I prefer Calvin Ridley.
If you’re looking for a bounce-back candidate, give me Diontae Johnson a few rounds later. If you’re OK with taking a receiver that plays in an offense with limited upside, I’m siding with Terry McLaurin. For me, the WR position has enough depth that I am not overly interested in absorbing the risk that comes with rostering Nuk in 2023.