Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has been an elite fantasy force for most of the past decade. With his career winding down, does Hopkins have one or two more quality years left in him? Should fantasy football managers draft Hopkins at his ADP this season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
DeAndre Hopkins’ Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
For my money, Hopkins belongs in the Hall of Fame. He’s been one of the best wide receivers of the past decade. From 2015-2020, Hopkins finished lower than WR5 just once. He was that dominant.
In 2023, Hopkins is now 31 years old. He averaged 14.7 PPR fantasy points per game in 2021 and 16.9 ppg last year. The 16.9 ppg was good for a top-10 finish, but it was still lower than the second half of the 2010s.
The best version of Hopkins was on the Texans. That was two teams ago. In recent years, the Titans have been where old wide receivers go to retire. From Andre Johnson to Julio Jones to Robert Woods, Hopkins hopes to not be the latest in formerly great wide receivers to fade into obscurity while in Tennessee.
At 31 years old, decline is a real risk for Hopkins. We saw some of this in 2021. However, Hopkins was able to bounce back last year. He wasn’t quite Texans Hopkins, but he still looked every bit capable of being an NFL team’s WR1.
Hopkins commanded a 29.4% target share. He averaged a respectable 2.21 yards per route run. And he absolutely dominated man coverage. Most wide receivers can find holes in a zone. The ability to dominate man coverage suggests Hopkins still has it.
The reason Hopkins isn’t being valued like the WR1 he was last year is due to several factors. First, he’s 31 years old. If he completely fell of a cliff this season, it would be far from shocking.
Second, Hopkins hasn’t been able to stay on the field. We saw this happen with Julio, too. These are guys who historically played through nagging injuries. Once you turn 30, it gets a lot harder to do so.
Hopkins missed all of one game his entire career up until 2021. He missed seven games in 2021 and eight games last year (although six were due to suspension).
Third, he’s on the Titans. In Houston and Arizona, Hopkins was the clear WR1 on teams that wanted to throw. The Titans ran the ball 50% of the time in neutral game script last season, the seventh-highest rate in the league. The offense revolves around Derrick Henry. Hopkins may very well maintain an elite target share, but the total target pie is going to be smaller.
Additionally, there’s the added risk of the Titans being bad and Ryan Tannehill getting benched for rookie Will Levis. Tannehill isn’t particularly good, but rookie QBs are bad for WRs. If you’re drafting Hopkins, you want Tannehill to retain the starting job.
Is Hopkins a Good Fantasy Pick?
After initially signing with the Titans, I was pretty much out on Hopkins. I dropped him to the low 20s, well below the point at which there was any realistic chance I’d get him at his WR20 ADP, No. 51 overall.
Since then, I’ve given it some more thought. That, combined with Treylon Burks’ knee injury that will likely keep him out to start the season, has me warming to Hopkins more.
MORE: Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
I’m still behind consensus, ranking Hopkins as my WR23. But given the flatness of the Round 4-6 WRs, he could easily end up on some of my teams.
Hopkins checks in at WR24 in our PFN consensus rankings. Kyle Yates and I are pretty much in line on Hopkins, with Derek Tate and Kyle Soppe also aligned (but much lower on him).
The reality is when it comes to the WRs ranked from about WR19-35, you can almost take them in any order you wish. Even at his advanced age, Hopkins feels like a safe pick.