The narrative surrounding players who are past their prime can be complicated. DeAndre Hopkins’ dynasty value shouldn’t be held against his upside from years past, but rather his ability to help your fantasy football team succeed.
No one was under the illusion that his Canton-worthy numbers would be sustained forever, but Hopkins’ physical tools do allow him to potentially age with grace. Hopkins has caught at least six touchdown passes in each of his past six healthy seasons (minimum 10 games played) and should get improved quarterback play moving forward.
He’s not what he once was, but is Hopkins more valuable than the dynasty industry gives him credit for, even with Calvin Ridley joining this receiver room in free agency?
DeAndre Hopkins’ Dynasty Outlook
Is Will Levis the answer for the Tennessee Titans? Answer that question, and you have the answer to just how much you can count on Hopkins as his career rounds out. Of course, that’s not an easy evaluation after only a rookie season to evaluate.
#Titans rookie QB Will Levis having words with DeAndre Hopkins after an apparent miscommunication 😳
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 3, 2023
On one hand, Hopkins still proved to be an alpha receiver in 2023. He posted a career-high aDOT (average depth of target), and that resulted in his most yards per catch (14.1) since 2017 with the Houston Texans. The peak athleticism may no longer be in his bag, but he didn’t fall off a cliff the way some aging receivers do at this point in their career.
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Hopkins was a threat downfield and in scoring situations — a nice combination for fantasy managers. He saw 12.4% of his targets last season come in the red zone, a rate that far outpaced his three seasons with the Arizona Cardinals (10.3%).
On the other hand, Hopkins’ physical prime is in the rearview mirror, stable QB play is anything but a given, and his efficiency deserves to be questioned after posting a 54.7% catch rate (12 percentage points below his 2022 rate) with a potential downtick in overall volume with Ridley in town.
Hopkins’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Hopkins land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Hopkins lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Tyreek Hill | MIA
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Justin Jefferson | MIN
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
11) Puka Nacua | LAR
12) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
13) Nico Collins | HOU
14) Rashee Rice | KC
15) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
16) DJ Moore | CHI
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Drake London | ATL
19) Malik Nabers | FA
20) Tee Higgins | CIN
21) DK Metcalf | SEA
22) Stefon Diggs | HOU
23) Cooper Kupp | LAR
24) DeVonta Smith | PHI
25) Zay Flowers | BAL
26) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
27) Davante Adams | LV
28) Mike Evans | TB
29) Tank Dell | HOU
30) Jayden Reed | GB
31) Rome Odunze | FA
32) Terry McLaurin | WAS
33) Deebo Samuel | SF
34) Calvin Ridley | TEN
35) Jordan Addison | MIN
36) Keenan Allen | CHI
37) Mike Williams | NYJ
38) George Pickens | PIT
39) Chris Godwin | TB
40) Josh Downs | IND
41) Courtland Sutton | DEN
42) Jerry Jeudy | CLE
43) Gabe Davis | JAX
44) Michael Wilson | ARI
45) Jameson Williams | DET
46) Christian Kirk | JAX
47) Troy Franklin | FA
48) Elijah Moore | CLE
49) Romeo Doubs | GB
50) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
51) Diontae Johnson | CAR
52) Jahan Dotson | WAS
53) Dontayvion Wicks | GB
54) Khalil Shakir | BUF
55) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
56) Christian Watson | GB
57) Xavier Worthy | FA
58) Joshua Palmer | LAC
59) Keon Coleman | FA
60) Zay Jones | JAX
Should You Trade Hopkins in Dynasty?
At the end of the day, I’m not confident that this is the right offense for Hopkins to age with grace. Thus, I’d be happy to sell him after a reasonably productive 2023, preferring to get out a little early as opposed to waiting until it’s too late.
Over the past five seasons, just three times has a wide receiver hit 850 receiving yards in their age-32 (or older) season:
- 2023 Adam Thielen – 59.2% of catches from the slot
- 2019 Julian Edelman – 69% of catches from the slot
- 2019 Emmanuel Sanders – 43.9% of catches from the slot
In total, those three elder statesmen saw 59.1% of their receptions in that season come from the slot. In 2023, Hopkins’ rate was 28%, and over his past three seasons, he sits at 21%.
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Those numbers hint at what we assume to be the case — finesse receivers can age a bit better as they rely less on physical traits and more on their experience. That’s not to say that Hopkins can’t produce, just that his profile generally struggles to sustain production with time.
Father Time is going to take his pound of flesh eventually. Should that occur, Hopkins’ numbers are at risk of falling off in a hurry. Does that happen in 2024?
Thanks to highlight plays, seven scores last season, and a big-armed project under center, Hopkins remains viable in the eyes of most. I’m comfortable risking getting out of the Hopkins business now for the sake of playing the long-term game.
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