DeAndre Hopkins is at a pivotal point in his career entering the 2022 season. He was unable to stay healthy last season and is nearing the end of his career. How should dynasty fantasy football managers value a still talented Hopkins, but one that is almost certainly amid a steady (or rapid) decline as he approaches the end of the road?
DeAndre Hopkins’ dynasty profile for 2022
For nearly a decade, Hopkins has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. His talents have translated to fantasy greatness. Hopkins has been fantasy-relevant since his second professional season in 2014 when he was a mid WR2. Beginning in 2015, Hopkins established himself as an elite WR1, posting a top-five positional finish in five of the next six seasons (the lone exception being his poor 2016 season).
Before the 2020 season, fantasy managers were a bit concerned about whether Hopkins could maintain his elite WR1 status in Arizona. He quickly quelled any concerns as his target share remained elite at 29.4%, and he finished as the WR5 in PPR fantasy points per game (minimum eight games played).
Heading into the 2021 season, there were no longer any concerns about Hopkins. Unfortunately, he went on to have the worst season of his career. While it was mostly due to injury, Hopkins was on pace for career-lows (excluding his rookie season) in targets and receiving yards…by incredibly wide margins. Hopkins averaged just 6.4 targets and 57.2 receiving yards per game. His previous lows were 7.9 targets and 75.6 receiving yards per game (both in 2014).
Hopkins’ down year casts doubt on his future as a fantasy WR1. Whether he bounces back or this is the start of his decline is the key question for dynasty managers in determining how to value Hopkins going forward.
Fantasy projection for Hopkins
Hopkins averaged 14.7 ppg in his 10 games played last season. He wasn’t his usual elite self when healthy, but he was still productive. 15.4 ppg is not what we’ve come to expect from Hopkins, but it’s what he averaged if we remove the game where he got hurt in the first quarter.
The problem is his production was heavily dependent on touchdowns. Hopkins scored 8 of them in just 10 games. He was playing his usual snap share and running plenty of routes, but the targeting and subsequent production weren’t following.
Age and wear and tear will undoubtedly catch up to Hopkins eventually. At 30 years old, it could very well be happening now. With that said, I’m not ready to declare Hopkins as on the decline.
The Cardinals let Christian Kirk walk. Although Kirk was never necessarily taking targets away from Hopkins, his departure leaves this WR corps barren behind Hopkins. Rondale Moore’s rookie season does not preclude him from breaking out, but his usage was concerning. Antoine Wesley is nothing more than a rotational WR3/4, at best. A.J. Green is 34 years old and will be the same role player he was last season, except another year older. They have nothing behind Hopkins.
If Hopkins can find a way to stay healthy, which he had previously done his entire career (he missed just seven games from 2013 to 2020), I’m betting on him returning to his previous target levels. Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury won’t have a choice. Plus, it’s not like throwing to Hopkins is a bad thing.
Given his age and last year’s battles with various injuries, Hopkins will be discounted this season. He may end up being a WR1 value at a WR2 price.
What is Hopkins’ future beyond 2022?
The end is near for Hopkins. He does not have a skill set that will age particularly well. And if 2021 is any indication, much like Julio Jones, a 30-year-old Hopkins won’t be able to play through the same nagging soft tissue injuries that he was able to play through in his 20s.
I don’t anticipate Hopkins has many more years left as a highly productive player. Because of his name, he could hang around into his mid-30s if he wants to, but he’ll devolve into a role player. With that said, I don’t think Hopkins is done just yet.
What can fantasy managers expect from Hopkins?
Hopkins’ deal with the Cardinals expires after the 2024 season. At that point, he’ll be 33 years old. Dynasty managers should not expect Hopkins to have much value beyond his current deal, but he should remain a useful fantasy asset through his age-32 season.
The Cardinals could realistically cut Hopkins after the upcoming season, but that would only happen if he completely falls off a cliff. We should have three more years of Hopkins being productive and at least one or two where he can be a WR1.
As I alluded to earlier, Hopkins could be undervalued this season, especially in dynasty formats. Dynasty managers often disregard older players, which presents a buying opportunity for contending teams.
Three years is a long time in the NFL. If you can acquire Hopkins at an age and injury discount to push for a championship, I’m confident in at least two more highly productive years.
I’m buying Hopkins’ ability to return to being a target monster in 2022. If he simply cannot hold up physically anymore, he’ll be a bust. Given his history of injuries, or lack thereof, I’m bullish on Hopkins’ ability to stave off decline for another year or two.
Rebuilding teams should be looking to trade wide receivers 30+ years of age, but make sure you get what Hopkins is worth. If that means hanging onto him to start the season with the hopes of a hot start increasing his value, I think it’s worth it.