One of the more athletic tight ends in the NFL and fantasy football, Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku projects to be a late pick once again. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Njoku’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
David Njoku’s fantasy outlook for 2022
One of the best after-the-catch TEs in the NFL, Njoku has the skill set to be one of Deshaun Watson’s or Jacoby Brissett’s top targets. Despite the ups and downs in their relationship, the Browns extended Njoku on a four-year, $56.75 million deal with $28 million guaranteed. His $14.187 million AAV makes him the fourth-highest-paid TE in the league. You don’t do that for a player you do not plan on using.
The former first-round pick has shown flashes during his first five seasons in the league, but he has yet to top 640 receiving yards in a single year. This is more by design than talent, as the Browns loved to run multiple TEs on the field. Njoku was constantly battling with Austin Hooper and even Harrison Bryant for snaps. With Hooper now in Tennessee, this is Njoku’s time to shine.
If anything, this will be the first time since 2018 that Njoku will be a full-time player for the Browns. The only issue is that the upside he had not long ago has been diminished a bit.
How the Browns’ depth chart impacts David Njoku’s fantasy projection for the season
If Watson were playing in 11 games as initially suggested, Njoku would be one of the top options at his position. However, Watson is unavailable until Week 13 against the Houston Texans due to the longer suspension levied by the league. Njoku’s upside, along with the rest of the pass catchers, has been sliced.
While Brissett is a serviceable QB, that’s all he is. Servicable. In contrast, Watson is a top-five talent. At least he was the last we saw him in 2020. The Browns will play a more conservative brand of football and lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to carry them until Watson is back.
This will be similar to what we saw HC Kevin Stefanski call in previous years. The Browns are more than capable of taking the air out of the ball. Last season alone, they were No. 6 in run rate at 46%. This stayed consistent in both larger point spreads and neutral game scripts (57%).
Amari Cooper is the primary read on the perimeter. Still 27 years old, Cooper is in the prime of his career. He is one of the best route runners in the NFL and will be the red-zone target for whoever is under center. Copper is coming off a bit of a down year, but his floor is 25% of the targets, making him the most trustworthy fantasy asset. Yet, even his value is not what it should be.
While Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Bell, and Anthony Schwartz will have decently sized roles, none of them are No. 2 options in most cases. Bell can be the Jarvis Landry 2.0, but no one is certain of this, not even me, who was high on him at Purdue while he averaged 11.6 targets, eight receptions, 101.2 yards, and 0.72 touchdowns.
David Njoku’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 161, Njoku is coming off the board as the TE16 in PPR formats, placing him in the 14th round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Njoku is the TE16 as the 148th player overall. I am a bit lower on Njoku, as he’s the TE17 and 157th overall player in my rankings.
It has been a roller coaster ride for me with Njoku. When they signed him, I was all-in as typically following the money works. Then there was the chance Watson would receive a soft punishment. Now it was full-send time as Njoku could reach top-10 status. But with Brissett, I have to temper my expectations, even though the lack of proven pass catchers points to him having a role in the offense.
Unfortunately, he is someone I am unlikely to target unless I have a deep enough of a bench where the occupied roster spot doesn’t impact my ability to manage the team. If I am waiting on a tight end, I would much prefer targeting Cole Kmet or Albert Okwuegbunam. The floor is dangerously low beyond them.