Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku offered up elite fantasy football production at the position over the final month of the 2023 regular season with multiple regulars of this offense out of commission. Can he carry over that momentum and return value on his current draft position?
David Njoku’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It’s easy to overemphasize the finishing stretch of last year because it’s the last thing we saw. Njoku ended the regular season with four straight games of 6+ receptions, a run that saw him score four times and pull down a 30+ yard catch in three of those games.
Great view of David Njoku’s TD catch today.#DawgPound #Browns pic.twitter.com/Koxfx9ixzg
— Anthony (@antdawgvintage) December 17, 2023
Njoku was special last winter, there’s no denying that. It’s important, however, to note that Joe Flacco (now a member of the Indianapolis Colts) was the signal-caller for those games. The veteran added stability to Cleveland’s offense and did so by way of his athletic TE.
That was great if you were along for the ride last December, but it means nothing for 2024.
Prior to that closing stretch, Njoku had just two scores in 2023 and 21 touchdowns in 91 career games, a 17-game pace of just under four. A fully healthy Deshaun Watson opened last season, and in the first three games with him at full strength, his TE1 saw just 11 targets and turned them into 92 yards with more lost fumbles (one) than touchdowns (zero).
Of course, Njoku’s projection is going to fall somewhere between the best tight end in the sport, like he was during the final month, and a below-average one. That’s logical, but understanding that the wide range of weekly outcomes exists is critical before taking the plunge in 2024.
- 2022: Had a run of 5+ catches and 70+ yards in three straight
- 2021: Under 20 yards four times in a five-game stretch*
*The exception was a game in which he lit up the Chargers for 27.9 PPR points.
Like I said, you’re signing up for a roller coaster. Can you handle that? Do you want access to Njoku’s ceiling, knowing that the floor could fall out at a moment’s notice (especially with the Browns having added skill-position talent this offseason)?
The volatility is priced into Njoku’s ADP, which is why he’s hovering around TE10 when drafted. After the first half of the draft is in the books, I have no issue with drafting Njoku. Either you do some and embrace the swings, or you’re hoping for an early sell-high window.
- Week 1 vs. Cowboys
- Week 2 at Jaguars
- Week 3 vs. Giants
- Week 4 at Raiders
- Week 5 at Commanders
- Week 6 at Eagles
- Week 7 vs. Bengals
The schedule tightens a bit after that and includes a tough matchup with the Chiefs in what is the first week of the playoffs for many leagues (Week 15), making that draft-and-sell strategy viable.
Njoku is being taken a round after Jake Ferguson and in the same range as Brock Bowers. This is the proper spot for him. Ferguson gets the nod for his more stable role, while Bowers’ raw talent is intoxicating after what Sam LaPorta did for the Detroit Lions a season ago.
Njoku is to be labeled a fantasy starter in 2024, but with the knowledge that he will likely single-handedly decide a few weeks for you — both for better and worse.