Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery finds himself on a new team with a lesser role than he had in Chicago. Does the upgrade in caliber of offense offset the projected volume decrease? What is Montgomery’s fantasy football projection for 2023?
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David Montgomery’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Montgomery has made a career out of surprising fantasy managers. He was severely overrated as a prospect (through no fault of his own), resulting in what should’ve been a solid 10.7 PPR fantasy points per game rookie season to be viewed largely as a disappointment.
His sophomore season was a disaster for the first 11 weeks. Then, he went on a tear from Week 12 on, never scoring below 20 fantasy points. That led to Montgomery being overvalued in 2021. Yet, he still managed to post a really solid 15.1 ppg.
Yet, heading into 2022 fantasy drafts, Montgomery’s ADP did not reflect his performance. It was lower than it realistically should’ve been. Clearly, fantasy managers knew something, as Montgomery was a colossal disappointment last season, averaging just 11.1 ppg, finishing outside the top 24.
The Bears were never expected to extend Montgomery, and they didn’t. He left for Detroit, where he will now serve as their primary rusher in a committee with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.
Should You Draft David Montgomery This Year?
Obviously, going from the Bears’ offense to the Lions’ is an upgrade. Jamaal Williams led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season. While no one is expecting Montgomery to match that, he does project to be the primary goal-line back on an offense that may score 50 touchdowns this season. It’s a good situation.
The primary issue for Montgomery is going to be volume. Simply put, he’s not going to sniff the 90% opportunity share he saw in 2020. Or the 80% he saw in 2021. He probably won’t even get to the 60% number he saw last season.
There’s also the matter of Montgomery being rather inefficient and relying on not only volume on the ground but receiving work.
Montgomery often gets credit for his ability to break tackles. It’s true. His 34.5% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate last season was inside the top 10. However, this particular skill of his is actually indicative of a larger problem.
Despite a top-10 evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, Montgomery created just 2.79 yards per touch, 27th in the league. Why the disparity? If Montgomery is making defenders miss, why isn’t he creating more yards?
Unfortunately, Montgomery is slow and lacks burst. He has to break tackles because he can’t avoid running into defenders. Montgomery averaged 1.6 yards before contact last season. While that’s usually a reflection of offensive line play, it can also indicate the ability of a running back.
For example, the Lions have a very good offensive line. That offensive line gave D’Andre Swift 2.9 yards before contact, the third-most in the league among running backs with at least 100 carries. Yet, in that very same offense, Williams averaged just 1.6 yards before contact. Was the line just not blocking well for Williams? Or is it that Swift is just a more explosive player?
We can expect something similar with Montgomery and Gibbs this season. Gibbs projects to look better because he is the more explosive player. Just 1.5% of Montgomery’s carries went for 15+ yards last season. You’re getting a plodder.
Previously, Montgomery made up for his lack of rushing efficiency with receiving work. When you think of the most productive receiving backs in the NFL, I doubt Montgomery’s name comes up. But he actually led all running backs in routes run in 2020.
Last season, Montgomery saw a 12th-ranked 11.8% target share. He ran a route on 55.2% of the Bears’ pass plays, eighth-most in the league. His 1.61 yards per route run was 10th.
There’s no denying Montgomery would have RB1 upside in the Lions’ offense if he was used like he was in Chicago. It’s just not going to happen.
Last season, Williams saw just a 2.9% target share. By all accounts, Montgomery was brought in to be a two-down grinder and a goal-line back. The touchdowns will help, but Williams ran for over 1,000 yards, scored 17 touchdowns, and still averaged only 13.3 ppg, finishing as the RB18.
If Montgomery runs for 1,200 yards and scores 12 touchdowns but only catches 20 passes for around 150 yards, that’s 13.3 ppg. And that’s a very ambitious projection both for Montgomery’s rushing volume and touchdown output.
Essentially, Montgomery’s fantasy ceiling is what Williams did last year. His floor is he loses some goal-line work and rushing volume to Gibbs and is barely able to reach 10 ppg.
With all that said, Montgomery’s ADP is RB29, No. 75 overall. His reduction in usage is baked into his price. I have him at RB22, which I initially thought was low, but apparently not.
At that price, Montgomery becomes more appealing. Between his standalone RB2/3 value and the high-RB2 upside in the event of a Gibbs injury (or outlier touchdown season), Montgomery is actually someone I’d consider drafting if he fell to me at the right spot. Don’t go out of your way to pursue him, but his reasonable price stops him from being an avoid in 2023 fantasy drafts.