Even though Jahmyr Gibbs was even better than advertised, Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery was still one of the best values at running back last season.
The Lions are running it back with their RB duo in an offense that should look largely the same. Should fantasy football managers be targeting Montgomery once again?
Should You Select David Montgomery at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 63rd Overall (RB20)
- 2023 Recap: David Montgomery was one of the best values at running back last season, finishing as the overall RB15 with 14.8 fantasy points per game. Despite playing in a timeshare with Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery delivered consistent fantasy production.
- Reliability and Consistency: Montgomery is the epitome of reliability. He’s capable of handling a heavy workload, trustworthy in the passing game, and rarely makes mistakes. His ability to produce even in a timeshare situation has been a key to his fantasy value.
- Rushing Efficiency: Montgomery posted a career-best 4.6 yards per carry and scored 13 touchdowns last season. While he doesn’t produce many splash plays, his role as the Lions’ primary goal-line back ensures he remains a valuable fantasy asset.
- Limitations: Montgomery’s lack of burst limits his big-play potential, and his role in the passing game has diminished with Gibbs in the mix. His 5.3% target share was a career low, and it’s unlikely to increase significantly this season.
- ADP Value: Montgomery is currently being drafted as the RB20, 63rd overall. This is a fair price for a player whose worst-case scenario is likely around RB22-24. He offers steady production with a reliable touchdown floor, making him a safe pick.
- Final Verdict: Montgomery is a solid and safe selection at his current ADP. While his ceiling is somewhat capped, he offers consistent RB2 production with the potential for more if Gibbs were to miss time. He’s a viable pick for fantasy managers looking for reliability in the middle rounds.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for David Montgomery
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
42) Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | San Francisco 49ers
43) DJ Moore, WR | Chicago Bears
44) DeVonta Smith, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
45) Cooper Kupp, WR | Los Angeles Rams
46) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
47) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
Montgomery’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
There’s nothing exciting about Montgomery — there never has been. But that doesn’t mean Montgomery is a bad player.
There was a time when he was. That was very long ago, though. We’ve now seen far more good from Montgomery than bad. And most importantly, the good has come more recently.
As a second-year player, Montgomery got better throughout the season. That was way back in 2020. He’s been above-average at worst since then.
Montgomery is the epitome of reliability. He’s capable of handling a heavy workload, trustworthy in the passing game, and just doesn’t make mistakes. Had he not gotten hurt last year, there’s a legitimate chance Montgomery never would’ve ceded any meaningful work to Gibbs.
Rumble, young man rumble 😤#Lions RB David Montgomery busts one loose for 6️⃣#OnePride
pic.twitter.com/YIRHpcgXgs— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 8, 2023
Even in a timeshare, though, Montgomery averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB15. Gibbs was the higher-drafted player and the better player. Yet Montgomery was still one of the best values of the 2023 fantasy drafts.
All fantasy football analysts should study Montgomery’s career to understand what factors into a running back’s fantasy value.
Montgomery’s two best seasons were 2020 and 2021. Why? Opportunity. He touched the ball 301 and 267 times (the latter number in just 13 games) those seasons, resulting in two top-12 finishes.
In Chicago, Montgomery thrived almost purely on opportunity. In Detroit, the opportunity wasn’t anywhere near what it was in Chicago. Yet, he performed better than he had any other year of his career.
Montgomery’s 4.6 yards per carry were a career-best. So were his 13 touchdowns. He was able to perform as well as he did because he went to a team with a good offense and a strong offensive line.
Montgomery is never going to be a splash play guy. He gets what’s blocked, and plays sound football. Put him on a bad offense behind a line that can’t block, and he’s probably going to average around 11 points per game.
One of Montgomery’s biggest strengths since his college days was his ability to break tackles. He evaded defenders at a 20.4% rate last season, which was 20th in the league. This is a great skill for running backs to have, but analysts often overstate it, as breaking tackles doesn’t matter if the running back can’t do anything afterward.
Montgomery’s lack of burst has always hindered his ability to make the most of missed tackles.
Last season, just 3.7% of Montgomery’s carries went for 15+ yards, and his 3.25 yards created per touch was 32nd in the league. He has become entirely dependent on touchdowns.
Fortunately, Montgomery is on the Lions. He’s going to continue to be able to score touchdowns at a higher-than-expected rate because he’s their primary goal-line back. Montgomery handled 53 red-zone touches and 13 goal-line carries last season.
Gibbs saw a bit more goal-line work during the second half of last season. However, this offense is so explosive and dynamic that there’s plenty to go around.
That said, Montgomery does have a bit of a capped ceiling. On the Bears, he supplemented his rushing with quality work as a receiver. There’s no question as to whether he’s still capable of doing so — he is. The problem is the other guy is way better at it.
Montgomery’s 5.3% target share was a career low, and there was no deliberate effort to get him the ball in the passing game. It’s unlikely we see that change this year.
Is Montgomery a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Montgomery is an incredibly safe selection. Typically, touchdown-dependent RB2s are more volatile. However, Montgomery’s touchdowns are actually quite reliable.
Last season, Montgomery scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game — a contest he left early due to injury. How did he manage that? By scoring touchdowns.
Montgomery played 14 regular-season games and three postseason games last year, scoring a touchdown in 13 of them.
Anyone drafting Montgomery needs to acknowledge the lack of upside, though. Outside of that anomalous Week 4 game in which he handled 32 carries, Montgomery had just one other game with 20+ fantasy points. He scored between 10.0 and 17.8 fantasy points in 11 of his 14 games played last season.
Fortunately, Montgomery’s ADP sits at RB20, No. 63 overall. That’s not bad for a guy whose worst-case scenario is probably around RB22-24. Plus, he does have injury contingent upside. If Gibbs gets hurt, Montgomery’s workload will increase.
I have Montgomery as my RB17. I wouldn’t call him someone to aggressively target, but he is a very viable pick at cost.