One of the most polarizing players in the fantasy football space is Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery, and that trend continues into 2021. After a career season, many still doubt the third-year RB and believe his 2020 campaign was a fluke. Does Montgomery’s fantasy outlook match this sentiment, or is he a great value at his current ADP?
David Montgomery’s fantasy outlook for 2021
If you compiled a list of the events that took place in 2020, Montgomery’s season would be towards the top of the “things I did not see coming” list. A highly productive running back at Iowa State, Montgomery struggled at times as a rookie. This led many to believe he was nothing more than a replacement-level RB. Then 2020 hit.
In 15 games, Montgomery was fourth in carries (247), fifth in rushing yards (1,070), and scored 8 rushing touchdowns. Coupled with 54 receptions for 438 yards and 2 more scores, his 1,508 scrimmage yards were fifth in the NFL. Montgomery’s 17.7 PPR was sixth amongst RBs in 2020 (minimum 60 rushes), raising his points per game by seven points from the year prior.
One of the most significant areas of improvement came in yards after contact. Montgomery recorded 590 yards after the first hit in 2020 — over half of his rushing total on the year. As the undisputed lead back, Montgomery’s snap share jumped to 74% (up 17% from 2019) while accounting for an astonishing 91.4% of the RB carries.
However, this does not paint the whole season. Given this was a bit ago, and we have all slept a day or two since then, let’s have a quick refresher.
Montgomery had two completely different seasons
Over the first 10 games, Montgomery rushed 131 times for 472 yards (3.6 avg) with 1 TD. Furthermore, he caught 30 receptions for 212 yards and another score. During this span, he was the RB17 (12.3ppg). From Week 12 on, Montgomery was the RB1 in fantasy, averaging 25.7 points. He recorded 116 rushes for 598 yards (5.2 avg) and 7 touchdowns. He also caught 24 of 27 targets for 226 yards and 1 more plunge into the end zone.
Averaging 23.3 touches, Montgomery recorded over 100 total yards and a TD in each of his final six games. Extrapolate his numbers into a 16-game pace, and they come out to 309 carries, 1,595 yards, and 19 touchdowns.
But it is not just what he did, but who he did it against that matters. Here are Montgomery’s opponents for the last six games and where they ranked in fantasy points allowed to running backs:
Week 12: Green Bay Packers (28th and 26.93 ppg)
Week 13: Detroit Lions (32nd and 32.47 ppg)
Week 14: Houston Texans (31st and 32.28 ppg)
Week 15: Minnesota Vikings (27th and 26.46 ppg)
Week 16: Jacksonville Jaguars (30th and 26.93)
Week 17: Green Bay Packers
Montgomery faced a weak schedule at the end of the year
It was the perfect storm. Montgomery had no competition for touches, and the end-of-season schedule was a cakewalk. Yet, we can’t hold this competition against him, either. He did what good backs do against bad teams. It’s the same for Jonathan Taylor. You can’t use it as a positive for him and a negative for Montgomery.
The issue for this season is that Montgomery is not alone anymore. Tarik Cohen is back from his torn ACL. The Bears also signed Damien Williams and drafted Khalil Herbert. Plus, there is likely going to be a coaching and quarterback change at some point this season.
Is there a chance Montgomery turned the curve, and some of us are too blind to see it? Perhaps. But I would rather be pleasantly surprised with Montgomery as my RB2/3 than I would be counting on him as my RB1.
Fantasy projection
When you create projections, you have to build a narrative. What is the team in question going to look like in 2021? How do the players mesh, coaches, SOS, losses/additions, etc.? I bring this up for the Bears as there are more questions than answers.
For starters, at some point, there will be a change at QB from Andy Dalton to Justin Fields. Now, this could happen in training camp, but HC Matt Nagy has all but said this is Dalton’s job. More than likely, it occurs in the season once the crowd grows restless in Soldier Field. Once that change is made, the offense completely shifts on its head to feature a big-armed, dual-threat QB.
Issue No. 2 is that Nagy and even GM Ryan Pace are likely losing their jobs. They are both on the hot seat, and it’s hard to envision them surviving the 2021 season. I am already looking forward to Joe Brady coaching Fields in 2022, but that’s a topic for a different time. If Nagy were ousted, it would mean a change in playcalling.
The Bears have been horrendous running the ball
Honestly, I am still trying to figure out why Nagy is resuming play-calling duties other than wanting to go out on his own shield. Heading into Week 12, the Bears ranked 32nd in rushing attempts (217), rushing TDs (2), rushing yards per attempt (3.6), and rushing yards per game (78.2). They were also last in average time per drive at 2:40.
They were 31st in yards per game (300.9), points per game (19.1), yards per play (4.7), first downs (188), third-down conversions (42), red-zone TDs (13), yards per drive (26.6), and expected points (-32.55). The New York Jets were 32nd in all categories.
That offensive explosion over the latter part of the season happened after Nagy handed over play-calling duties to OC Bill Lazor. You know, the timeframe on which we are trying to base Montgomery’s value.
As for projections, I think the added competition and eventual shake-ups hurt Montgomery for fantasy. While early, I have Montgomery earning roughly 225 carries, 950-975 yards, and 9 touchdowns. Additionally, he could add another 30 receptions on 40 targets for 260-270 yards and another score.
David Montgomery’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Montgomery is currently the RB17 with an ADP of 31.0 in half PPR formats. On Fleaflicker, he is the RB16 with a 30.5 ADP. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Montgomery is the RB17 with a 33.37 ADP.
Should you draft David Montgomery in 2021 for fantasy?
I’ll start by saying this. I believe Montgomery is appropriately valued for fantasy in 2021. Coming off the board as a mid-to-late RB2 is close to his value, and I don’t believe you will be disappointed with him there. But it all depends on how you view him.
For me, Montgomery carries risk. But he could see an uptick in production, which exceeds what I have him slated for in projections. I would draft him with that mindset. On the other hand, I believe you will be disappointed if you select him thinking you are getting the Montgomery we last saw on the field.
That was Montgomery on a Bear’s offense averaging 27.7 ppg with Lazor calling the shots. You’re more likely to get the Montgomery that was on the 19.8 ppg version of the Bears with Nagy for a sizable chunk of the season. Unless the Bears pull a Jets and keep him around all season as they did with Adam Gase.
While I am not actively fading Montgomery on my fantasy rosters, I’m not reaching for him either. If he winds up my RB3, so be it. But he is going in the range of players who I like far better. I’m targeting Chris Carson, D’Andre Swift, Mike Davis, Kareem Hunt, or Myles Gaskin, who are all going after Montgomery.
While likely to return value at his current ADP, I am unsure if Montgomery really moves the needle for a roster in fantasy this season.