The Detroit Lions will face the Washington Commanders in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB David Montgomery.
Is David Montgomery Playing vs. the Commanders?
Montgomery was listed on the injury report with a knee injury but was a full participant in practice all week. Barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Lions’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit David Montgomery in the Divisional Round?
Montgomery (MCL sprain) missed the final three games of the regular season, but there is optimism surrounding his status as Detroit gets its playoff run started.
This is the toughest situation to read of the week. The Lions don’t necessarily need Montgomery (Jahmyr Gibbs scored six times and averaged 5.7 yards per carry in his stead) to function at a high level, but given the various injuries on the defensive side of the ball, the Lions can use all of the offensive help they can get, as sustaining drives might be their best defensive strategy moving forward.
The problem is that we aren’t getting any real discount. Montgomery is priced in the Isiah Pacheco/Brian Robinson Jr. tier, running backs on good offenses with uncertainty around their best-case scenarios this week. At cost, I feel better about him than those two, but this slate very much lines up as a “pay up for two running backs and figure the rest out” sort of situation.
Montgomery has 27 rushing scores in 31 games as a Lion, and a multi-score game could bump all rosters with him toward the top of the leaderboard. That upside is enticing, but we are 430+ days removed from his last 25+ yard touch and saw him check in under fantasy expectations in each of his past three games.
I’m currently going to be light on Montgomery exposure, but should he be cleared and carry a low ownership number, I’ll be pinching pennies to get some Flex exposure, a slot where I currently have upside receivers.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
David Montgomery’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Saturday, Montgomery is projected to score 12.2 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 12.6 rushing attempts for 52.8 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. It also includes 1.8 receptions for 15.2 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Washington Commanders were a below-average defense for most of the season, which their final ranking reflects. Ultimately, Washington's performance was largely fairly consistent based on their level of competition.
The Commanders had five weekly top-10 finishes this season. Those performances have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, Titans, and the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. Setting Philadelphia aside, the other four all rank in the bottom 10 of PFN's Offense+ metric.
Against the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round, the Commanders recorded a 68.3 (D+) grade, their fourth-lowest of the season. Washington recorded its second-worst EPA per dropback (-0.60) and passing success rate of the season (39%), with Tampa Bay's point total suppressed by the Commanders' massive edge in time of possession.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Dallas Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders will face an even tougher test in the Divisional Round against the Lions' offense.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
David Montgomery’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. LAR)
2) Derrick Henry | BAL (at BUF)
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs. WAS)
4) Kyren Williams | LAR (at PHI)
5) James Cook | BUF (vs. BAL)
6) Joe Mixon | HOU (at KC)
7) David Montgomery | DET (vs. WAS)
8) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at DET)
9) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at DET)
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. HOU)
11) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. HOU)
12) Justice Hill | BAL (at BUF)
13) Ty Johnson | BUF (vs. BAL)
14) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. LAR)
15) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. HOU)
16) Craig Reynolds | DET (vs. WAS)
17) Dare Ogunbowale | HOU (at KC)
18) Ronnie Rivers | LAR (at PHI)
19) Keaton Mitchell | BAL (at BUF)
20) Dameon Pierce | HOU (at KC)
21) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at DET)
22) Patrick Ricard | BAL (at BUF)
23) Carson Steele | KC (vs. HOU)
24) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (vs. BAL)
25) Sione Vaki | DET (vs. WAS)
Commanders at Lions Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: Since the start of 2022, the Lions have a 73.8% win percentage against teams without a true weapon of a runner under center and a 54.5% mark when facing such an asset – Jayden Daniels certainly falls into that second bucket of QB.
QB: On Sunday night, Daniels completed 58.3% of his pressured passes with two scores and zero interceptions (regular season: 46.4% complete with 1.6 touchdowns-per-interception).
Offense: The Commanders scored 62.5% of their drives in the Wild Card Round and are nearly unstoppable when having success even close to that level (13-2 when scoring on over one-third of their offensive possessions).
Defense: Washington posted a 66.7 Def+ grade on Sunday night, their fourth-worst effort of the season. That said, two of those four instances have come against the Buccaneers, making that potentially a tough matchup more than something to fear moving into the Divisional Round.
Fantasy: If you extrapolate Terry McLaurin’s last seven games for a 17-game season:
- 100 receptions (143 targets)
- 1,127 yards
- 19 touchdowns
- 329.1 PPR fantasy points
Justin Jefferson was WR2 in total PPR points this season with 317.5.
Betting: Since Week 11, Washington is 1-3 ATS against the NFC East and 3-1 ATS against the rest of the NFL
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions scored 41 points against the Chargers last season, coming off their bye. They hung 47 on the Cowboys this season and are now coming off another bye week.
QB: Jared Goff finished the season with a 93.2 grade in our QB+ metric, the 11th-best mark in our six years of tracking (second best this season, trailing Lamar Jackson).
Offense: The Lions ranked third in fourth-down conversions during the regular season (22) and tied for seventh in fourth-down conversion rate (66.7%).
Defense: Detroit's offense gets the attention, but its defense ranked seventh in turnover rate and red zone efficiency for the season.
Fantasy: The best games over PPR fantasy expectation during the second half of the season, minimum 20 touches:
- Week 12 Saquon Barkley (at LAR): +127.1%
- Week 16 Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN): +124.1%
- Week 18 Gibbs (vs. MIN): +114.4%
- Week 17 Gibbs (at SF): +77.9%
- Week 9 Derrick Henry (vs. DEN): +77%
Betting: The Lions have covered 70% of their games since Dan Campbell took over (49-21-1), and they are easily the best mark in the league (the Bengals at 61.6% are the only other team at 58%).
