Houston Texans running back David Johnson struggled with injuries last season and only played in 12 games. With the Texans likely starting Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, Johnson’s fantasy football outlook does not look promising for 2021. Is Johnson someone you should avoid at his ADP?
David Johnson’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The Texans shocked the NFL world with the acquisition of Johnson from the Arizona Cardinals in a trade, gifting DeAndre Hopkins.
The veteran running back finished as the RB21 in PPR formats last season. Johnson played 74% of the offensive snaps and averaged 16 opportunities, 84 total yards, and 15 fantasy points per game.
This was a far cry from Johnson’s masterful 2016 season when he finished with an inconceivable 408 PPR fantasy points. Nevertheless, this was Johnson’s most productive fantasy season in years.
The Texans fired Bill O’Brien and hired David Culley to be the new head coach. Culley decided to keep Tim Kelly on as the offensive coordinator. The continuity with Kelly is a good thing for the offense heading into 2021. The uncertainty surrounding Deshaun Watson’s legal situation and possible suspension, however, downgrades the entire offense.
It will be difficult to replicate Watson’s passing yardage
Houston averaged 34.1 pass attempts (23rd) and 21.5 (31st) rushing attempts per game last season. Watson and the passing game carried the Texans’ offense. He finished with 4,823 passing yards and a franchise-high 33 touchdowns.
Backups Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills are not talented enough to replicate Watson’s passing production, but Houston’s defense may force them into passing situations. Can the Texans depend on the running game?
Unlikely, given their rushing attempts and 91.6 (31st) rushing yards per game last season. Furthermore, Houston enters the season with nine new offensive linemen.
The Texans have adequate depth to handle the ups and downs of an NFL season. Houston’s offensive line is mediocre, and Johnson isn’t the type of running back capable of overcoming this weakness.
The Texans did attempt to stabilize the running game by adding Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead this offseason. All three players will threaten Johnson’s opportunity share in 2021.
Fantasy projection
Johnson’s 2016 season was the equivalent of the fantasy football version of Mount Everest, but the descent has been filled with underperformances and injuries. With this in mind, he projects for around 200 opportunities, 925 total yards, and 6 touchdowns.
David Johnson’s ADP
Johnson is readily available in the ninth round when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker, where his ADP currently sits at 101. In pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, Johnson has a much lower ADP of 130.86. Meanwhile, his ADP in half-PPR formats on Sleeper is 92.8.
Should you draft Johnson in 2021?
Yes, if you land him at a discount. Johnson can be viewed as a solid RB3 with minimal upside. Meanwhile, Lindsay is my favorite target in the Texans’ backfield. He has two 1,000-yard rushing seasons on his NFL résumé and is positioned to see a larger opportunity in 2021 than many think. Nevertheless, Johnson could be a viable option, depending on how you are assembling your team.