Fantasy football managers can sometimes be a bit too quick to discard aging wide receivers on draft day. Yet, Father Time remains undefeated, and the drop from low-end WR1 to middling Flex option can come fast and furious in the NFL.
After eight years of fantasy excellence, does Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams have another top-10 fantasy season left in the tank heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Should You Select Davante Adams at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 16th Overall (WR9)
- Proven Track Record of Success: Adams has been one of the most consistent elite WRs in fantasy football, finishing as a top-10 WR in PPR formats in six of the last eight seasons, including a WR10 finish in 2023 despite playing with a rookie quarterback for much of the year.
- Elite Target Share: Adams maintained an elite 33.1% target share in 2023, ranking second among all WRs. His 175 targets led to 103 receptions, 1,144 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns, showcasing his continued ability to command attention in the Raiders’ offense.
- Declining Efficiency Metrics: While Adams still produced at a high level, his yards per route run dropped from 2.59 (eighth) in 2022 to 2.03 (30th) in 2023. Similarly, his yards after catch fell from 493 (sixth) in 2022 to 336 (25th) in 2023. These declines may signal the beginning of a slowdown as he turns 32 years old this season.
- Increased Target Competition: The presence of Jakobi Meyers, who caught 71 passes for 807 yards and eight touchdowns last season, and the addition of elite TE prospect Brock Bowers, could slightly reduce Adams’ target share and red-zone opportunities in 2024.
- Quarterback Concerns: The Raiders’ quarterback situation remains uncertain, with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell competing for the starting role. While not ideal, Adams was still productive with O’Connell last year, finishing as the WR11 on a points-per-game basis from Week 9 onward.
- ADP Analysis: Adams is currently being drafted as the WR9 at No. 16 overall, which reflects confidence in his continued elite target share and production. However, his declining efficiency, increased target competition, and less-than-ideal QB situation make him a more volatile option than in previous years.
- Final Verdict: While Adams still has top-10 WR potential, selecting him in the middle of the second round carries some risk due to his age, efficiency decline, and the Raiders’ QB situation. If you’re comfortable with that risk, he could still deliver strong value, but there are safer options at this ADP.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Davante Adams
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
24) Michael Pittman Jr., WR | Indianapolis Colts
25) Josh Jacobs, RB | Green Bay Packers
26) Rachaad White, RB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27) Mike Evans, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28) Joe Mixon, RB | Houston Texans
29) Davante Adams, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
30) Jaylen Waddle, WR | Miami Dolphins
31) Nico Collins, WR | Houston Texans
32) Sam LaPorta, TE | Detroit Lions
33) Josh Allen, QB | Buffalo Bills
34) Travis Kelce, TE | Kansas City Chiefs
Davante Adams’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
How much longer will Adams keep producing at this elite fantasy level? That is one of the biggest questions heading into his 11th NFL season.
Remember when I mentioned Adams’ eight years of fantasy excellence? Well, here’s a closer look at just how consistent he has been — minus one injury-riddled season in 2019 — for fantasy managers.
Davante Adams’ Fantasy Positional Ranks Since 2016
- 2023: WR10
- 2022: WR3
- 2021: WR2
- 2020: WR1
- 2019: WR23 (WR6 on points per game basis)
- 2018: WR3
- 2017: WR14
- 2016: WR10
This type of sustained greatness likely means Adams will be making a trip to Canton, Ohio, somewhere in the near future. Yet, he’s set to turn 32 years old later this year and doesn’t have Aaron Rodgers throwing him the football anymore.
#Raiders WR Davante Adams’ route-running is FILTHY 😮💨
pic.twitter.com/h7IgXldoR8— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 17, 2023
But let’s focus on the positives for a moment. Adams still possesses an elite target share at 33.1% (175 total targets), which ranked second amongst wide receivers in 2023. Additionally, he managed to catch 100 passes for a fourth straight year, which includes his first two seasons with the Raiders.
On the surface, Adams’ 103 receptions for 1,144 receiving yards and eight touchdowns was still a solid season from an overall production standpoint. But upon a closer look, there may be some cause for concern that Father Time is starting to tap him on the shoulder.
Yards Per Route Run With Positional Rank
- 2023: 2.03 (30th)
- 2022: 2.59 (eighth)
Yards After Catch With Positional Rank
- 2023: 336 (25th)
- 2022: 493 (sixth)
Now, do some of these numbers require some context? Absolutely. Adams was playing with his old college quarterback, Derek Carr, for the vast majority of his more productive and efficient 2022 season. Last year, he was mostly catching passes from fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell. That could excuse some of Adams’ drop in yardage and touchdown output last year.
Another contributing factor to his slight dip in overall production was the presence of a legitimate WR2 in Jakobi Meyers, who caught 71 passes for 807 yards and the same amount of TDs (8), as Adams last season. In comparison, Mack Hollins was the Raiders’ second-leading receiver behind Adams in 2022.
If the target competition was a bit stiffer last season, adding exceptional TE prospect Brock Bowers to the mix likely doesn’t help Adams see more targets this upcoming season.
Bowers is an elite run-after-catch and red-zone threat, which could actually have a negative fantasy impact on Adams, who finished last year second behind only Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb with 29 targets and 16 receptions in those red-zone production departments.
One thing we’ve barely touched on is the quarterback position, which didn’t get a whole more exciting with the team bringing Gardner Minshew to compete with O’Connell for the starting role in 2024.
While the QB situation doesn’t inspire confidence in a WR1 overall finish for Adams in 2024, O’Connell wasn’t exactly a death sentence to his fantasy production last year once he became the full-time starter in Week 9. From that point on, Adams was the WR11 on a points-per-game basis.
For those of you who think Minshew is terrible, he had a similar impact on Michael Pittman Jr. when he took over as the Indianapolis Colts starter in Week 6 last season. From that point on, Pittman was the fantasy WR7 overall, averaging 16.5 fantasy points per game in PPR formats.
I mention those numbers to suggest that if Adams maintains his elite target share, then he still has top-10 upside at the position, even with uninspiring options under center in 2024.
Is Adams a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
To the surprise of very few people at this moment, Adams’ ADP is currently No. 16 overall as the WR9 off the board in fantasy football drafts.
If you could guarantee me Adams will see north of 170 targets for a third straight year, I would be fine selecting the veteran wideout while overlooking a less-than-ideal QB situation, a new dynamic pass-catching TE, and the fact he plays on a team expected to run the football a lot in a season where he will turn 32 years old.
Adams’ struggles against former Kansas City Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed in Week 16 last year showed me some signs that he isn’t quite as dominant as he used to be, but I’m not willing to write him off quite yet.
I just don’t want to bank on everything staying the exact same for Adams to return on the middle second-round investment you’ll need to make to get him on your squad. I would prefer to go with multiple other options at other positions than Adams at his current ADP.