Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams is coming off his worst season in years. Yet, he still looked like his elite self last season.
Adams was hindered by poor quarterback play. Now another year older, can he return to fantasy football greatness? Where does Adams’ dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Davante Adams’ Dynasty Outlook
The most difficult players to value in dynasty are the older veterans who are very clearly still at or near the top of their game. There are a couple of them in the NFL right now, one of which is Adams.
👀 Davante Adams with a grown man catch! pic.twitter.com/YfAFM6aliA
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 13, 2023
Last year was a challenge for Adams. He had finished as a WR1 every year since his breakout 2016 season…until 2023. Adams’ 15.6 fantasy points per game was his worst average since averaging 15.3 in 2016.
For the majority of his career, Adams benefited from being Aaron Rodgers‘ WR1. After the move to Las Vegas, Adams proved he could still thrive with Derek Carr, averaging 19.7 fantasy points per game in 2022. It seemed as if Adams was QB-proof, but in 2023, that theory was proven incorrect.
With the combination of Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O’Connell under center, Adams was only able to muster up 1,144 yards on 103 receptions.
The issue wasn’t volume — he still saw a 33.1% target share, second in the league. It wasn’t his ability — watching Adams play, he still regularly cooks defenders off the snap and gets open at will.
MORE: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024
I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say the sole reason for Adams’ decline was poor QB play.
Two years ago, Adams averaged 8.4 yards per target, 36th in the NFL. It wasn’t at Rodgers-Adams levels, but it was still good enough to make him an elite fantasy receiver. Last year, Adams’ yards per target fell to 6.5, 82nd in the league. That’s just not going to cut it.
Adams’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Adams sit in the dynasty WR landscape? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Adams lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
6) Puka Nacua | LAR
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Tyreek Hill | MIA
9) Malik Nabers | FA
10) Drake London | ATL
11) A.J. Brown | PHI
12) Chris Olave | NO
13) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
14) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
15) Rome Odunze | FA
16) Rashee Rice | KC
17) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
18) DJ Moore | CHI
19) DK Metcalf | SEA
20) DeVonta Smith | PHI
21) Tank Dell | HOU
22) Nico Collins | HOU
23) Tee Higgins | CIN
24) Zay Flowers | BAL
25) Jordan Addison | MIN
26) Brian Thomas Jr. | FA
27) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Jayden Reed | GB
30) Davante Adams | LV
31) Amari Cooper | CLE
32) Mike Evans | TB
33) Christian Kirk | JAX
34) Xavier Worthy | FA
35) Marquise Brown | KC
36) Diontae Johnson | CAR
Should You Trade Adams in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Adams? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!
In dynasty, you want to buy talent even in bad situations because the presumption is the situation will improve if given enough time.
Adams doesn’t have the luxury of time. We can and should value the situation massively.
Before the 2024 season is up, Adams will turn 32 years old. I haven’t seen a single shred of evidence that suggests he is declining, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. We know for a fact it will eventually, and att this point, it could be any year now.
While I do think Adams’ skill set is the type that will age well — allowing him to play into his mid-30s — the hill comes fast for some players. I thought the same thing about Stefon Diggs, and look what happened in the middle of a season.
It’s certainly not a guarantee, but I feel confident that Adams won’t fall off a cliff this season. Fantasy managers should operate under the presumption that he’ll remain an excellent wide receiver in 2024…but not beyond that.
That doesn’t mean it will be over for Adams in 2025. It just means we can’t take it for granted.
The good news for 2024 is Adams’ situation clearly improved. The Raiders signed Gardner Minshew, who they claim will compete with O’Connell for the starting job. Rest assured, this competition is about as serious as when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers said Baker Mayfield would “compete” with Kyle Trask. Minshew is going to start.
Obviously, Minshew is not this incredible talent who will save a franchise. But we don’t need him to be. All we need from Minshew is for him to treat Adams exactly how he treated Michael Pittman Jr. last season.
Pittman saw a 30.5% target share last season. He caught 109 passes for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns. If Adams gets the same volume approximately, I’m quite confident his yardage and touchdown numbers will be better, allowing him to get back to around 18 fantasy points per game.
Adams is uniquely positioned as a potentially elite fantasy asset who doesn’t really have much value for teams that aren’t contending.
If you have Adams and you’re not contending this year, you have to trade him. It’s just too risky to bet left holding the bag after this season and not being able to get anything of future value in return.
KEEP READING: 2024 Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings
As for contending teams, I’m in. Adams should definitely be treated as a one-year rental if you acquire him, but he’s poised to be a very good value in the 2024 season.
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