Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams was unable to overcome poor quarterback play to post his eighth consecutive WR1 season. Nearing the end of his career, is Adams someone fantasy football managers should steer clear of in 2024 Best Ball drafts?
Davante Adams’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
There’s a lot to unpack with Adams. For starters, the man just had his worst season since 2016 at 30 years old. Banking on a 31-year-old wide receiver to return to the ranks of the elite is always a risky proposition.
With that said, Adams sure doesn’t look like he’s declining. It’s easy to make excuses for all-time great reaching the end of their careers, but Adams’ production issues truly aren’t his fault.
Adams averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game last season. He hadn’t averaged fewer than 17.6 points per game in any of the previous five seasons. Of course, all but the previous two years have come with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
There was already a noticeable issue in 2022 when Adams still averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game. His catch rate, which was 77.2% and 72.8% in 2020 and 2021, fell to a career-low 55.6%. It didn’t improve in 2023, remaining below 60% at 58.9%.
Adams was able to thrive in 2022 with Derek Carr under center because of massive efficiency. He averaged a career-high 15.2 yards per reception. The downfield targets, along with a league-leading 14 touchdowns, made up for the increased number of targets that fell incomplete.
While Adams didn’t suffer from the move from Rodgers to Carr, a further downgrade to Jimmy Garoppolo/Aidan O’Connell proved too much for even the future Hall-of-Famer to overcome.
With the combination of Garoppolo and O’Connell under center, Adams was only able to muster up 1,144 yards on his 103 receptions. The issue wasn’t volume — he still saw a 33.1% target share, second in the league.
It wasn’t his ability — watching Adams play, he still regularly cooks defenders off the snap and gets open at will. I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say the sole reason for Adams’ decline was poor QB play.
Two years ago, Adams averaged 8.4 yards per target, 36th in the league. It wasn’t at Rodgers-Adams levels, but it was still good enough to make him an elite fantasy receiver. Last year, Adams’ yards per target fell to 6.5, 82nd in the league. That’s just not going to cut it.
Should You Draft Adams in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
There will be a year Adams’ production falls off a cliff. A younger me would say he’d rather be out a year early than a year late. Older me says with certain players, specifically the elite of the elite, there’s no reason to project a decline until we’ve seen evidence.
Adams will inevitably fade as he gets older. I don’t think it will happen in 2024. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean he’s a desirable fantasy asset.
Adams is currently the cheapest he’s been in fantasy drafts since 2018. At his WR13 price, there’s enough upward mobility for him to provide fantasy managers with a positive return on investment if he can get decently close to his previous levels of performance.
While it may be tempting to take the shot on Adams rebounding, I just can’t do it. Not yet, anyway.
The Raiders’ quarterback situation is a complete unknown right now. It’s certainly not going to be Garoppolo. I would be stunned if they went into the season with O’Connell as the starter. Finding a viable starting quarterback is not easy. There’s no guarantee the Raiders are able to secure a meaningful upgrade.
If they do, Adams’ price is going to increase. That’s a risk I’m willing to take. The alternative is drafting Adams and hoping it gets better when, in fact, it can still get worse.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Stacking Strategy
I’m willing to sacrifice a little bit of ADP value for the security of knowing who will be throwing Adams passes in 2024. If it’s someone we trust to deliver him the ball accurately, it’s still unlikely he returns to being a first-round receiver. Thus, managers will be able to get value anyway. I would take a wait-and-see approach on Adams in Best Ball drafts.
