New York Giants TE Darren Waller’s dynasty value has reached a nadir after another injury-riddled season. With injuries and age both significant concerns, how should fantasy football managers value Waller as we head into the 2024 offseason?
Darren Waller’s Dynasty Outlook
I’ve been a Waller guy for so long that perhaps I missed the point at which I should’ve stopped being a Waller guy. The ultimate outlier, he went from a failed wide receiver to out of the league to one of the best tight ends in football.
Waller broke out in 2019, averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game in his first full season as a tight end. Yet, it was the 2020 season that was his crowning achievement.
Waller caught 107 passes for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns that year, averaging 17.4 points per game. He not only finished as the overall TE2, but he also posted WR1 numbers. Waller was one of the most valuable assets in all of fantasy football that season.
Unfortunately, whether fantasy managers knew it ahead of time or not, Waller has been a player to avoid for each of the past three seasons.
After playing in all 16 games in 2019 and 2020, Waller has missed 18 games over the past three seasons. I really hate the term “injury prone” because it is often misapplied, but there are players who very clearly are. And it’s impossible to argue anything else for Waller.
It’s not just that Waller has consistently missed games over the past three seasons; it’s that it’s been the same issue. He has strained his hamstring multiple times and aggravated it trying to return multiple times.
It’s the same thing every year. That’s very different than a player like Christian McCaffrey who hurt his hamstring once, his ankle once, his thigh once, his oblique once, and his calf once.
Tight ends are different than wide receivers and running backs in the sense that players can remain highly effective deeper into their 30s. However, that doesn’t change how the human body works. Players are more susceptible to injury when they are over 30, and it’s harder to recover.
There’s also the issue of Waller’s performance when healthy. It’s not as if we saw vintage Waller each of the past three seasons and just didn’t get enough of it. He’s averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game during his healthy games in each of the previous two years. He hasn’t been the advantage he was in 2019 and 2020.
Waller’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Waller land in the dynasty TE landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Waller lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Jason Katz’s Top 25 Dynasty TE Rankings
1) Sam LaPorta | DET
2) Trey McBride | ARI
3) Mark Andrews | BAL
4) T.J. Hockenson | MIN
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF
6) Travis Kelce | KC
7) George Kittle | SF
8) David Njoku | CLE
9) Evan Engram | JAX
10) Jake Ferguson | DAL
11) Dallas Goedert | PHI
12) Kyle Pitts | ATL
13) Cole Kmet | CHI
14) Pat Freiermuth | PIT
15) Isaiah Likely | BAL
16) Michael Mayer | LV
17) Tucker Kraft | GB
18) Dalton Schultz | HOU
19) Luke Musgrave | GB
20) Darren Waller | NYG
21) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN
22) Cade Otton | TB
23) Hunter Henry | NE
24) Juwan Johnson | NO
25) Gerald Everett | LAC
Should You Trade Waller in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Waller? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
It’s a little late to be trading Waller. While I do think he can still play at a high level if he gets his body right, the fact remains we haven’t seen it in four years.
Waller will be 32 years old this season. Is a rebound possible? Of course. Is it likely? Not in his current situation.
Waller has three years left on his contract with the Giants. However, the terms of his deal provide an opportunity for New York to reasonably get out of it at any point going forward, and he could be cut at any time.
I don’t think the Giants will cut him this year. But it very well may happen in 2025.
Now, that shouldn’t necessarily be a concern for fantasy managers. If the Giants are cutting Waller after this season, odds are it’s because he either didn’t play well or couldn’t stay on the field (or both). At that point, Waller’s dynasty value will be virtually zero.
Fantasy managers should definitely look to see what they can get for Waller, but I wouldn’t do it right now. The best course of action is to wait for the inevitable training camp reports of Waller being in excellent shape and fully healthy. The allure may be too much for someone else in your league to pass up.
MORE: Best Ball Fantasy TE Rankings 2024
Waller’s opportunity with the Giants should be fantastic given their lack of quality pass catchers. However, their quarterback situation is completely unknown right now.
It’s a challenge to paint a positive picture for Waller in 2024. As a result, dynasty managers should be looking to cash out. You just need to wait for the right opportunity.
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