The Seattle Seahawks have arguably had the most active offseason so far in terms of key player movement. First, longtime Seattle wideout Tyler Lockett was cut after spending his entire career with the team. Then, quarterback Geno Smith and receiver DK Metcalf were traded to the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively. Most recently, the Seahawks brought in quarterback Sam Darnold following his impressive comeback season with Minnesota.
Why Darnold Is ‘Guaranteed’ Success, According to NFL Analyst
The $100.5 million man, Darnold, will look to build on his resurgent season as he enters his first year with Seattle. NFL analyst Colin Cowherd sees the 6-foot-3 quarterback having no trouble outperforming Smith, as he explained on The Herd with Colin Cowherd.
"Darnold will do better than 21 TDs and 15 INTs next year"@ColinCowherd GUARANTEES that Sam Darnold will outperform Geno Smith next season pic.twitter.com/sovfIB1CoC
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) March 12, 2025
After a season in which Darnold posted a 35-12 TD-INT ratio compared to Smith’s 21-15, Cowherd is stunned that some are doubting Seattle’s decision. He even offered his “personal guarantee or your money back” that Darnold will have a better TD-INT ratio than 21-15 in his first season wearing navy and neon green.
Darnold vs. Smith by the Numbers
Cowherd is baffled by the narrative surrounding Darnold as he prepares to take over in Seattle.
“Darnold was better than Geno last year,” said Cowherd. “What’s all the hysteria? I understand the media falls for stories, but the story has gone from ‘what a great comeback story’ to ‘Geno Smith is irreplaceable!’”
Cowherd went on to explain why Darnold makes more sense for Seattle.
“Darnold, seven years younger, had a much better year, much better athlete mobility-wise, and that deal Darnold signed with the Seahawks—Sam gave away money,” Cowherd said.
While Darnold’s career has been a roller coaster, it seems he has finally reached his potential as he joins a Seahawks squad in dire need of quarterback help. As Smith departs, his 2024 season stands out as fairly average in terms of statistical performance.
In PFSN’s 2024 NFL QB+ Rankings, Smith ranked 15th. His 77.6 (C+) grade placed him higher than quarterbacks Kyler Murray, rookie Bo Nix, and former teammate Russell Wilson. While Smith didn’t hurt Seattle significantly, his performance ultimately left much to be desired. Analyst Ben Rolfe broke down Smith’s 2024 campaign.
“Smith’s overall numbers are underwhelming. He ranks 21st in EPA/DB (0.03), 20th on third down (37.4%), and 14th in nYPA (6.9). Smith essentially matched his 2022 level of play, yet the Seahawks are watching the playoffs rather than playing in them.”
Darnold, on the other hand, ranked three spots ahead of Smith in 12th. His 79.0 (B) grade placed him above talented quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Jordan Love. Rolfe analyzed Darnold’s statistical performance this season.
“Darnold’s overall numbers are intriguing. He finished eighth in terms of nYPA (7.3) despite only getting 4.9 YAC/Cp (30th). He was 11th from a clean pocket (0.29 EPA/DB) and 19th when pressured (-0.32 EPA/DB). Darnold finished inside the top 10 in passing yards per game (254.1) with 35 passing touchdowns. However, he also threw 12 interceptions.”
Seattle’s roster overhaul has landed them a top-15 quarterback based on last season’s numbers. Time will tell whether Cowherd’s guarantee holds up. In the meantime, fans will be eager to see their new quarterback take the field.