One of the few quarterbacks on the hot seat in the NFL and even for fantasy football, New York Giants QB Daniel Jones projects to be a late-round pick at best again, as his 2022 fantasy outlook suggests he might not be worth rostering based on previous form. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Jones’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be valuable at his current ADP?
Daniel Jones’ fantasy outlook for 2022
Heading into Year 4, it’s make-or-break time for Jones. Even when the pick was made in 2019, people called Dave Gettleman crazy for selecting Jones sixth overall. Unfortunately for both, Jones has been unable to play to the standards which usually come with a top-10 pick and heads into the year with the Giants having already declined his fifth-year option.
After a rookie season that saw Jones the QB17 in points per game (16.5), he was 32nd (12.9) and 19th in 2020 and 2021, respectively. It’s worth using points per game when looking into Jones as he has a tendency to get dinged up, missing 11 of a possible 49 games.
What has saved Jones for fantasy purposes and led to some boom potential is his rushing upside. Jones averaged 26.4 yards per game over his career, with 423 yards in 2020 and 298 last year. That’s a decent chunk of his value and upside.
As a passer, Jones has left a lot to be desired. Through three years, he’s completed 62.8% of his passes while averaging 2,799 yards (221 per game), 15 TDs, and 9.7 interceptions. On a 17-game pace, that’s 3,757 passing yards, 20:13 touchdowns to interceptions, 447 yards, and two rushing TDs. That would have ranked him 17th last year in ppg at 15.3. That’s not going to cut it.
The hope is that the hiring of Brian Daboll and the injection of new talent will have Jones in his best opportunity. However, I would discourage anyone from assuming he can take a similar jump in fantasy value as Josh Allen did with Daboll.
How the Giants’ depth chart impacts Daniel Jones’ fantasy projection for the season
For all the bumps in the road the Giants have had in recent years, they’ve had a solid offseason and enter 2022 with a better overall roster. The most significant upgrade as far as Jones is concerned is the offensive line. GM Joe Schoen replaced every starter on the unit except for left tackle Andrew Thomas. Evan Neal out of Alabama was selected with the No. 7 overall pick, and the Giants also added players familiar with Daboll and his schemes, with Jamil Douglas and Jon Feliciano.
This is massive for Jones as, like every other QB, they do better when they have time to throw. Jones completed just 50.9% of his passes when under pressure (27th amongst qualified QBs).
Unlike the last two years, the hope is Jones will have an entire season with a healthy backfield led by Saquon Barkley. This will allow the Giants to use the threat of the run to complement the pass, utilizing more play action and getting Jones outside the pocket where he is at his best.
Once outside the pocket, Jones has a deep group of pass catchers to target. That is if they can stay healthy this year, something they could not do last year. In fact, New York didn’t have a single snap where Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Kadarius Toney, and Evan Engram were on the field simultaneously.
Engram is gone after heading to Jacksonville during free agency, but the rest remain, plus the addition of Wan’Dale Robinson, a WR who also played RB while in college at Nebraska and Kentucky.
Golladay and Shepard need to show they can stay healthy, but as a whole, this is a deep and talented offense. Toney is one of my favorite mid-round values at receiver, and according to all training camp reports, the amount of pre-snap motion now in the Giants’ offense features to be a welcome change to what was a stagnant offense. Safe to say, we won’t see a QB sneak from their own 4-yard line on 3rd-and-9.
Jones’ ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 200, Jones is coming off the boards as the QB27 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him well outside the range of draftable players in 12-team fantasy leagues. Yet, in Superflex, due to the positional scarcity, Jones is worth drafting but ideally late in the draft as your QB3 for injury and bye-week protection.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Jones is the QB19 and 160th overall ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I am lower on Jones in my personal rankings as the QB24 and 172 overall. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
In 1QB leagues, I wouldn’t advise drafting Jones, given the volume of starting-caliber options like Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr going in the QB10-14 range. You can be one of the last and walk away with a perfectly suitable QB.
However, in Superflex or 2QB leagues, if you wait on selecting a QB2 after locking in a top-six starter, Jones could be a decent value, assuming he gets it figured out in 2022. With that said, I personally prefer to draft both of my QBs roughly inside the top 14-16 picks as once past the Cousins and maybe Tua Tagovailoa range, the bottom drops out rather quickly. Instead of peaks of upside, it’s a flat line of “meh” fantasy value from there.