Daniel Jones has improved his completion percentage with each of his seasons in the NFL, but it was his rushing (708 yards and seven touchdowns) that had fantasy football managers singing his praises in 2022 (QB8 in points per game).
His passing numbers have underwhelmed in a big way since a promising rookie season, so the New York Giants were active this offseason in an effort to support their franchise quarterback.
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Daniel Jones’ Fantasy Outlook
Fun fact: No player has ever had even 715 receiving yards on balls thrown by Daniel Jones in a single NFL season. In fact, a Kyle Soppe bounce-back candidate in Darius Slayton is the only player ever to reach 615. Yikes.
At the very least, the Giants proved willing to go get their franchise signal-caller some help this offseason, bringing in tight end Darren Waller via a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders and former Indianapolis Colts wideout Parris Campbell as a free agent signing before spending a third-round pick on field-stretching rookie Jalin Hyatt.
Of course, Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson are still options on this roster (both could start the season on PUP), as is Isaiah Hodgins, a midseason acquisition from the Buffalo Bills who scored in four of his final five regular season games and went 8-105-1 in the playoff win in Minnesota.
Oh, and New York brought in another slot option when they signed Cole Beasley this summer, reuniting him with head coach Brian Daboll. Does this team have an alpha WR? Not even close, but they might just have enough options for Daboll to craft up a sneaky offense that can stay ahead of the chains.
Saquon Barkley will continue to be the straw that stirs the drink in New York, and they made sure to get him the rock in 2022. His home run-hitting ability on the ground is no secret, but it was his usage in the passing game last year that should have Jones managers excited.
During the first three seasons of his career, Barkley owned a 1.16 average depth of target. Last season, that number dropped to -0.21. That tells me that Daboll and Company want Jones to hit Barkley on quick hitters to get him in space.
With the exception of Slayton, this is a death-by-a-thousand-papercuts passing game that should encourage efficiency but limit the spike weeks (for better and worse).
Can Jones Repeat His Rushing Success From 2022?
Jones entered 2022 with 1,000 rushing yards and five scores on his NFL resume (three seasons, 38 games) and proceeded to run for 708 yards and seven scores in 2022 alone.
When the Giants had a chance to clinch a playoff berth in Week 17 … 11 carries for 91 yards and two scores. In the playoff win over the Vikings, a game that featured two of the best running backs in the sport, it was Jones who led the game in rushing attempts (17) and rushing yards (78).
The problem with this question is the phrasing. Or maybe it’s me and my tendency to take things literally. Just three times this millennium (2011-12 Cam Newton, 2019-20 Lamar Jackson, and 2021-22 Jalen Hurts) has a quarterback chalked up 700 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs in consecutive seasons, so it’s not likely that Mr. Dimes repeats what he did last season.
That said, his 7.5 carries per game in the first year of Daboll’s tenure didn’t happen by accident. Jones owns an athletic profile, something that was evident in his recording a run that picked up at least 10 yards in 13 games a season ago. Thirteen!
Over the past five seasons, only once has a QB finished a season with more such games (Josh Allen in 2021). So, while Jones isn’t statistically likely to replicate his 2022 totals, I’m not expecting much of a decline.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Jones at His ADP?
By ADP, Jones is right on the fringe of being drafted as a fantasy starter (QB13), and that’s about right. This offense won’t put Jones in scoring position nearly as often as the Miami Dolphins or Vikings will, and their signal callers (Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins) are being drafted just ahead of Jones.
Behind Jones in positional ADP are Anthony Richardson and Aaron Rodgers, a pair of QBs that enter 2023 with a wide range of outcomes, thus making them riskier.
I find myself drafting a decent amount of Waller this season, and when I commit to him early, I find myself more likely to roll the dice on Jones later. I have no problem with Jones at his current price, though I do think I’d make him part of a fantasy quarterback-by-committee situation and draft a second signal-caller.
The G-Men open the season with a tough stretch of defenses and close with the Philadelphia Eagles in two of their final three, making Jones slightly less appealing if your league plays through Week 18.