Philadelphia Eagles running back D’Andre Swift displayed impressive on-field ability during his time in Detroit but was never able to put together a full campaign. Now entering the second phase of his career, will Swift ever reach his fantasy ceiling? Does it even still exist? What is Swift’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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D’Andre Swift’s Fantasy Outlook
By the time I sat down to write this outlook on Swift, I’d already been through more than half the league. With that said, Swift is easily one of the trickiest players to figure out.
Former second-round running backs still on their rookie deals typically don’t get traded unless they are bad at football. Yet, through three seasons, we can definitively say Swift is good at football.
Last season, Swift averaged 5.5 yards per carry and was second in the NFL with 4.58 yards created per touch and second in yards per touch at 6.3. Not only did Swift command a 15.1% target share (sixth in the league), he also averaged 1.78 yards per route run (fifth).
We’ve never seen Swift with a ton of volume (and we never will), but he’s always been efficient. Of his carries, 8.1% went for at least 15 yards, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
The concern for Swift’s fantasy upside has always been his usage. Last season, the Lions limited him to just a 42% snap share and 37% opportunity share. Those numbers ranked outside the top 40 and top 50, respectively.
This season, Swift finds himself in a better offensive situation on the Eagles’ elite offense. However, we know mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts target running backs less than traditional pocket passers.
Last season, no team threw to running backs less than the Eagles’ 12.1%. Now, to be fair, Philadelphia’s RB target share was 22.7% in 2021. So, there is precedent for backs to see more volume through the air. This stark contrast only serves to further complicate the matter of evaluating Swift.
We also know talent commands volume. Cam Newton never threw to running backs…until Christian McCaffrey came along. While Swift may not be McCaffrey, he’s an excellent receiving back and the best one the Eagles have had since LeSean McCoy. Given Swift’s talent, we should feel confident Hurts will throw more to him than he did his running backs last season.
With that said, Philadelphia’s not lacking for pass catchers. Swift may be an elite receiving back, but a pass to a wide receiver or a tight end will always be better than a pass to a running back.
Between A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, Swift is looking at possibly being the fourth option in Philly’s passing game. In Detroit, he was never lower than third, and the Lions threw the ball more because they don’t have a mobile QB taking away potential pass attempts.
The Eagles weren’t as pass-heavy last season as the final numbers may indicate. In fact, they had a 53% pass rate in neutral game script. The real issue was Philadelphia’s complete and utter dominance in games, resulting in a 57% second-half run rate.
The Eagles stomped on teams in the first half and then just didn’t throw anymore because they didn’t have to. With a tougher schedule this season, they could find themselves in more competitive games, needing to throw more.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Swift at His ADP?
The problem I ran into when projecting the Eagles was that after Brown, Smith, and Goedert, there just weren’t many targets left for the running backs. As a result, I was only able to get Swift to an 11% target share.
Admittedly, that could end up proving low. However, even a higher target share is unlikely to move the needle much since I have the Eagles projected for just 527 pass attempts.
Swift has more competition for targets than he ever had in Detroit and will be dealing with an overall lower total amount of passes thrown by his quarterback. As a result, I have Swift projected for 43 receptions for 323 yards and 3.6 touchdowns.
With all this talk about receiving work, don’t think I’ve forgotten that Swift is a running back. However, this is a guy who averaged just 7.1 carries per game last season.
This offseason, Philadelphia signed Rashaad Penny, plus they have incumbents Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott on the roster.
I have Swift projected for 143 carries for 723 yards and 5.7 touchdowns. Even with him going over 1,000 total yards and scoring nine touchdowns, which feels optimistic, he comes out to averaging 12.0 PPR fantasy points per game and an RB28 finish.
That may suggest I’m down on Swift, but I’m really not. I believe he has the widest range of outcomes of any player in the history of fantasy football. That’s not meant to purely be hyperbole.
The ceiling outcome for Swift is his talent commands more volume, and he turns into their feature back, posting elite RB1 numbers in an elite offense. The floor outcome for Swift is he’s one-third of a committee, handling no more than 6-8 touches a game, and unstartable in fantasy.
Based on his RB26 ADP, No. 68 overall, fantasy managers are pricing him right in between his floor and ceiling. Even with limited work, Swift has never averaged less than the 13.7 ppg he averaged last season. But just because we can’t project the Eagles to use Swift more heavily doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
I have Swift ranked as my RB23. Given his floor and ceiling combination, I believe it to be a fair ranking. He’s a very volatile pick, and Philadelphia didn’t give up much to acquire him. He’s also been unable to stay on the field over his first three seasons.
If the Eagles choose to keep Swift’s workload light, he’ll be a low RB2 at best. But if they use him more heavily, he could absolutely smash his ADP.
Ultimately, the decision on whether to draft Swift will come down to the landscape of the draft board when his name creeps up to the top of the available players. There’s definitely potential value here, but the risk has to be lessened for me to push the button.