Chicago Bears RB D’Andre Swift is now on his third professional team entering his fifth season. Is this finally the spot where Swift settles in as a reliable fantasy football running back? Or will the Bears’ backfield devolve into a three-headed monster, making Swift an underwhelming selection in Best Ball drafts?
D’Andre Swift’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
What a wild ride it’s been for Swift in his four years in the NFL. He went from being the next big thing to part of a three-headed committee to Kenneth Gainwell’s backup to the starter. Now, he’s on his third team in as many years, hoping to establish himself as the Bears’ starting running back for the next three years or so.
Last season, Swift opened the year as a guy who was potentially never going to have fantasy value. Had Gainwell not gotten hurt in Week 1, there’s a chance Swift’s role was a 4-6 touch-per-game player all season. As fate would have it, Gainwell did get hurt, allowing Swift to start in Week 2. Swift smashed, securing the starting role for the remainder of the season.
D'Andre Swift > Taylor Swiftpic.twitter.com/WIOK3Yko9m
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 15, 2023
While Swift somewhat outperformed expectations last year, his season wasn’t all that great. He only averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game and really faded (along with the rest of the Eagles offense) over the second half of the season. From Week 9 onward, Swift had just two games with double-digit fantasy points.
A big part of Swift’s struggles was his lack of receiving work. I still believe Swift to be one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. But on the Eagles, due to the combination of Jalen Hurts running the ball and the team opting for Gainwell on third downs, Swift only saw a 10% target share. It was, by far, the lowest of his career.
Despite the Eagles being a prolific offense with a mobile quarterback, Swift wasn’t that efficient on the ground. His 19% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was 25th in the league, and his 2.68 yards created per touch was 51st in the league. Swift was fine, but he certainly did not resemble the explosive playmaker he was over his first two years in Detroit.
Should You Draft Swift in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Believe it or not, Swift joining the Bears increases his fantasy upside. The team clearly signed him to be their lead back. There’s always a chance he performs poorly and this devolves into a three-headed monster with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. However, if Johnson was the answer at running back, the Bears wouldn’t have signed Swift. And Herbert lost his job to D’Onta Foreman last season. Clearly, the team has no allegiance to him either.
On the Bears, Swift actually has a shot at goal-line carries. Given his size, it’s no guarantee. But he had very little chance at goal-line carries on the Eagles, with Hurts executing the Tush Push every time the team got to the one-yard line.
Swift also should see an increased role in the passing game. While the Bears have been one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league the past two years, that was with Justin Fields under center. Caleb Williams, the presumptive No. 1 overall pick, is more of a tactical scrambler. He can run when necessary, but he’s not specifically looking to do it. That should lead to more checkdowns for Swift.
Ideally, Swift will play a role similar to the one he had in Detroit. We don’t want him carrying the ball 20 times a game. Give him 10-12 carries and 4-6 targets, allowing him to stay fresh and explosive. That would be best for Swift’s fantasy value.
D’Andre SWIFT 💨 pic.twitter.com/MCRMc7WNuR
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 18, 2022
Lastly, this Bears offense could be sneaky good this year. There’s a natural inclination to associate the Bears with fantasy wasteland, given how poor their offenses have been. But they’ve completely revamped things in 2024. Williams replaces Fields. DJ Moore is still there. Keenan Allen is a massive upgrade on Darnell Mooney. They should be able to support Swift as a fantasy RB2, which is higher than where he’s currently being drafted.
Right now, we haven’t seen the Bears’ offense in action. Last summer, Herbert’s ADP shot up multiple rounds because of one preseason play. The time to get in on Swift is before we have any proof of concept. If he creeps into the top 20 running backs, he may no longer be worth it.
READ MORE: Best Ball Fantasy RB Rankings 2024