Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Dan Arnold enjoyed a mini breakout after being traded in the middle of the 2021 season. With Trevor Lawrence another year more experienced and a new coaching staff in town, what can fantasy football managers expect from Arnold in the 2022 season, and what is his ADP in fantasy drafts?
Dan Arnold’s fantasy outlook for 2022
After being a UDFA in 2017, Arnold deserves a ton of credit for carving out a role. Last season was the best year of Arnold’s career. He caught 35 passes for 408 yards in just 11 games and averaged a career-high 6.9 PPR fantasy points per game.
While Arnold was never a reliable fantasy producer, he did pop up on the fantasy radar throughout the 2021 season. From Weeks 5-10, Arnold hit double-digit fantasy points in four out of five games. His improved play earned him a career-best 13.6% target share.
Arnold is an elite athlete. He’s 6’5″, 240 pounds, and runs a 4.68 40 time. His athleticism establishes that if he can command the volume, Arnold has the upside to be a fantasy producer.
How the Jaguars’ depth chart impacts Dan Arnold’s fantasy projection for the season
Sadly, the changes to the Jaguars’ depth chart spell bad news for Arnold’s fantasy outlook.
The Jaguars brought in direct competition for Arnold in Evan Engram. It would be a major upset if Engram wasn’t the primary pass-catching tight end. Although Engram has been inconsistent throughout his career, his upside is immense, and he’s a proven producer.
Additionally, the Jaguars beefed up their wide receivers. The team signed Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to join Marvin Jones, Laquon Treadwell, and Laviska Shenault Jr. While the Jaguars may not possess any elite players, they have a number of average to good players. They also have an excellent pass-catching back in Travis Etienne.
As things currently stand, Arnold projects to be no higher than sixth on the target hierarchy. And even that may be an ambitious projection. Even if Lawrence becomes the prince who was promised, Arnold would have to usurp Engram to have any fantasy value. There’s just no way Arnold will be fantasy-relevant without an Engram injury.
Arnold’s ADP for 2022
In a standard-sized 12-team fantasy league, there are around 16-20 tight ends drafted. Arnold’s ADP is well outside the top 24. He will go undrafted in your fantasy football league, which is exactly how it should be. We have him ranked as our consensus TE30.
It’s possible Engram gets hurt again, leading to Arnold’s name popping up on the streaming radar. If he gets the chance, Arnold is capable of producing back-end TE1 numbers. However, fantasy managers don’t need to have Arnold on their draft board. Just file his name away as someone to remember in case Engram misses time.