Over the last three seasons, Damien Harris regularly brought his A-game when facing off against the Buffalo Bills. Three out of the four times Harris saw work against their AFC East rival, he topped the century mark and scored a rushing TD.
Naturally, when the New England Patriots decided not to re-sign Harris, the Bills jumped at the opportunity. But will that change of scenery make Harris a reliable fantasy football weekly starter at the RB position this season? Let’s take a closer look.
Did you get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure what to do? Make championship-winning decisions with PFN’s FREE Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator!
What Has the Fantasy Ceiling Been for Running Backs Playing With Josh Allen?
Here is a pop quiz for you to sink your teeth into … when was the last time the Bills’ offense produced a top-15 fantasy RB?
If you guessed Lesean McCoy all the way back in 2017, you would be correct.
In the post-Shady McCoy era in upstate New York, Devin Singletary has been the most fantasy-relevant RB, and he produced mediocre results.
Singletary’s PPR finishes from 2019-2022 were RB35, RB31, RB20 and RB23. Part of the reason Singletary never saw that breakout season was the carry distribution in the Bills’ backfield.
Since 2019, Singletary, Josh Allen, and another Bills RB have carried the ball a minimum of 89 times each.
Singletary is no longer a member of the Bills, leaving Harris to join forces with an efficient second-year RB in James Cook. However, this backfield could still be a headache to figure out in 2023.
Could Damien Harris Be a Weekly Starter for Fantasy Football in 2023?
Despite the departure of the Bills’ leading rusher of the past four seasons, Harris is expected to start the season behind Cook, who finished 2022 with 89 carries and 21 receptions (110 total touches) for 687 total yards and three TDs.
Now, the depth chart can always change for a multitude of reasons, but if the pecking order remains the same, Harris should be in line for somewhere between 90-120 carries.
If Harris were to dominate the goal-line work in one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, that could be enough to feel like you can rely on him as a weekly Flex option.
Unfortunately, even that role doesn’t feel very secure because of Allen.
Allen has led the team in rushing TDs three out of the last four seasons, which significantly caps the fantasy upside of Harris, given his anticipated role alongside Cook.
Will Harris have some weeks where he finishes inside the top 20 at the RB position due to his scoring opportunities in this offense? Probably.
However, when you consider he has never caught more than 18 passes in a season and has to deal with the rushing TD vulture that is Allen, it doesn’t feel like he has a weekly floor you can be confident enough to rely on week in and week out in 2023.
The big weeks will be there occasionally, but Harris feels a bit too TD-dependent to label him a weekly starter for your fantasy football team.