Houston Texans RB Dameon Pierce’s dynasty fantasy football value has been a rollercoaster ride through just two seasons.
Entering 2022, we were intrigued by a prospect who had just scored 16 times on 119 touches as a senior at Florida and was walking into a lead role in the NFL as a fourth-round pick. He then rattled off three straight games with over 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the first month of the season — resulting in a stock bump that had him labeled as a dynasty difference-maker.
Dameon Pierce’s Dynasty Outlook
If I had told you that, entering 2023, the Texans would rank in the top half of the league in yards and points while scoring at the fifth-highest rate when reaching the red zone, I guess that you would have jumped the ADP line to acquire Pierce. Heck, depending on who you talked to, that profile after an encouraging rookie campaign may have been enough to sell an organ for.
Now what? You’re short a kidney, didn’t win your league in 2023, and are left wondering where things went wrong both last season and moving forward. Let’s sort through things and see what the overall profile looks like as we take a few steps back.
Most rushing yards among rookies:
💥 Dameon Pierce – 413
Breece Hall – 275
Tyler Allgeier – 184pic.twitter.com/HthkrX76Ek— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 15, 2022
Devin Singletary was brought in as a complementary piece to Pierce entering last season, but after succeeding in that role for four years with the Buffalo Bills, he proved himself capable of stabilizing a run game that was tasked with keeping defenses honest amid a C.J. Stroud breakout season.
Singletary earned himself a payday from the New York Giants in their effort to replace Saquon Barkley, but the Texans elected to make a move as opposed to relying on Pierce ahead of 2024. With a star quarterback on a rookie deal, Houston is in win-now mode, and that gave them the motivation to go out and sign former Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon.
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Through two seasons, Pierce simply hasn’t displayed the vision that it takes to succeed behind an offensive line that is a work in progress: 77.6% of his rushing yards have come after contact.
Stroud’s ascension to stardom may help open up running lanes, but there’s been little proof of concept from Pierce up to this point, and with just seven scores in 27 games (408 touches), banking on an outlier scoring season doesn’t seem wise either.
Pierce’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Pierce land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Pierce lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Saquon Barkley | PHI
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Kyren Williams | LAR
9) James Cook | BUF
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Javonte Williams | DEN
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
16) Derrick Henry | BAL
17) Nick Chubb | CLE
18) Josh Jacobs | GB
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Tony Pollard | TEN
21) Zamir White | LV
22) D’Andre Swift | CHI
23) Aaron Jones | MIN
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
25) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
26) Najee Harris | PIT
27) Blake Corum | FA
28) Tyjae Spears | TEN
29) Austin Ekeler | WAS
30) David Montgomery | DET
31) Joe Mixon | HOU
32) James Conner | ARI
33) Trey Benson | FA
34) Keaton Mitchell | BAL
35) Jonathon Brooks | FA
36) Raheem Mostert | MIA
37) Gus Edwards | LAC
38) Devin Singletary | NYG
39) Kendre Miller | NO
40) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
41) Zack Moss | CIN
42) Dameon Pierce | HOU
43) Roschon Johnson | CHI
44) Tank Bigsby | JAX
45) Khalil Herbert | CHI
46) AJ Dillon | GB
47) Chase Brown | CIN
48) J.K. Dobbins | FA
49) Miles Sanders | CAR
50) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
51) Alexander Mattison | LV
52) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
53) Antonio Gibson | NE
54) Elijah Mitchell | SF
55) Jerome Ford | CLE
56) Justice Hill | BAL
57) Darrell Henderson Jr. | FA
58) Jamaal Williams | NO
59) Rashaad Penny | FA
60) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI
Should You Trade Pierce in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Pierce? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
There is one realistic path to Pierce being fantasy viable and that’s volume. Clear and unchallenged volume that we can rely on weekly in an offense that should be one of the 10 best for years to come.
The offense is right, but the franchise’s unwillingness to commit to Pierce speaks as loud as anything.
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His 3.7 career yards per carry average is underwhelming by itself, and if you remove the three long runs that he has (I think it’s fair to say that banking on such runs from him isn’t how you plan to accumulate fantasy points), his yards per carry dips to 3.2.
Without much pass production to speak of up to this point, what is the difference between Pierce and AJ Dillon besides a slightly clearer path to work? If he is still valued as the fantasy regular that he was 12 months ago by someone in your league, I’d engage in trade talks, but that’s an optimistic view — you’re sitting on a distressed asset and one that isn’t tracking to return much value any time soon.
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