One of the best all-around running backs in the NFL, Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook has his eyes fixed on the fantasy football RB1 spot for the 2021 season. What is Cook’s fantasy outlook this season, and should he be in consideration for the No.1 overall spot in ADP?
Dalvin Cook’s fantasy outlook for 2021
When he is on the field, Cook is arguably the best running back in the NFL. Last year, he played in 14 games and ended the season with over 1,900 total yards. Additionally, he tied for second in rushing touchdowns with 16. Outside of Week 12 (RB27), Cook never finished lower than RB17 with nine games as an RB1, including six top-four performances.
Over the last two seasons, Cook has played in 28 of 32 possible games while scoring the most fantasy points among RBs (630.2). He averaged 1,346 rushing yards and 440 receiving yards per season while scoring 30 touchdowns overall. He was the RB6 in 2019 with 20.9 ppg and 0.93 points per opportunity. In 2020, Cook was the RB2 in PPR (24.1 ppg and 0.92 pts/opp).
I know Cook carries this “injury-prone” tag, but I don’t know if that is entirely fair. We tend to pay more attention to missed games from first-round picks. In reality, nearly every running back misses time. Last season, only three of the top 20 RBs played in all 16 games (Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, and Nyheim Hines). One of those is a walking superman, and the other two are in timeshares.
While this inevitably raises the injury risk, the volume, especially in critical areas, can’t be overstated. Last season, Cook had a league-leading 66 red-zone touches and the most goal-line carries in the league.
Assuming we get around 16 games from Cook, which is all we can reasonably expect out of an elite RB, he could push Christian McCaffrey as the RB1 in 2021. Cook should be the second pick in 1QB fantasy drafts this fall.
Dalvin Cook’s fantasy projection
Cook is one of the few workhorse-style running backs left in the NFL. Not only did Cook set a new career-high total in rushing yards (1,557) last year, he did it while averaging an absurd 22.2 carries per game. While Derrick Henry is credited with the most opportunities (409), Cook averaged more per game than Henry with 26.1 compared to 25.6. In total, only nine RBs averaged 19 or more opportunities per game in 2020.
While there was a change at offensive coordinator, I would not be concerned about how this may impact Cook and his fantasy outlook. After all, Klint Kubiak is literally Gary Kubiak’s son. This is an offense built on running the ball down the throats of the opponent and allowing Kirk Cousins to make efficient throws.
The crazy part of Cook’s production is that there is room to improve. Over the past two seasons, Cook has 97 receptions and 880 yards but only 1 receiving touchdown.
While early, projections have Cook as the clear-cut RB2 in fantasy for 2021. Although likely to miss a game or two (by injury or design), Cook should see around 275-285 carries for 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns. He will also see ample work out of the backfield, catching around 55 of his 65-70 targets for nearly 500-520 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Dalvin Cook’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Cook is currently the RB2 with an ADP of 2.6 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he falls slightly to 3.9. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Cook is the RB2 with a 2.1 ADP. On Fleaflicker, he is largely going as the consensus second pick.
Should you draft Cook in 2021 for fantasy?
Having the second pick of the draft in 1QB formats offers one of the easiest decisions in fantasy. Just select whoever slides to you between McCaffrey or Cook and count your blessings. While McCaffrey is in a tier by himself amongst RBs, Cook is directly behind him and has the best shot of anyone to dethrone the Panthers RB.
Anytime he suits up, Cook is a walking 100-yard, multi-touchdown game. Last season alone, he averaged 111.2 rushing yards and 24.6 PPR points per game. That resulted in an RB1 or better performance in 10 of 14 games and RB2 or better in all but one game (Week 12).
However, you will need an early pick to grab Cook — that is the only way to roster him, given his near first-overall ADP.
Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.