Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz followed up his 2020 breakout with a career year in 2021, establishing himself as the team’s TE1. With Blake Jarwin out of the picture, Schultz is poised to be an every-down tight end this season. What can fantasy football managers expect from Schultz in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Dalton Schultz’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Entering the 2020 season, Jarwin was a popular late-round tight end target as the clear starter on a high-powered offense. After Jarwin tore his ACL in Week 1 of the season, Schultz was thrust into a starting role. He thrived immediately, posting 21.8 PPR fantasy points in his first start.
Schultz’s 2020 season was largely mediocre, though. He only had four more games of double-digit fantasy points, with one of them coming in Week 17, which didn’t count anyway. Jarvin’s impending 2021 return added a cloud of uncertainty to the Cowboys’ tight end situation.
Unfortunately for Jarwin, he got hurt again. This time, Schultz wasn’t merely mediocre. He commanded a 16.4% target share and ran the fifth-most routes amongst tight ends. Schultz averaged 12.3 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing in the top five at the position.
Entering the 2022 season, Schultz is playing on a one-year deal. He has all the motivation in the world to prove to the Cowboys (or another team) that he’s their long-term answer at tight end.
How the Cowboys’ depth chart impacts Dalton Schultz’s fantasy projection for the season
Schultz has a chance to be an even bigger part of the Cowboys’ passing attack in 2022. This was the highest-scoring offense in the NFL last season. The Cowboys led the league at 31.1 points per game and scored the most touchdowns with 64.
The Cowboys have a fast-paced, high-volume offense
Dallas also plays fast. They ran the second-most plays per game and played at the third-fastest pace with a 60% neutral game script pass rate. All of this is to say the Cowboys were already a high-volume passing offense. In 2022, they may need to throw even more.
The defense got a little worse and is also unlikely to lead the NFL in turnover differential again. They lost a key offensive lineman in La’el Collins. Most importantly for Schultz, the team traded away Amari Cooper and didn’t really replace him with a clear starter.
Schultz could be the second-most targeted receiver
The Cowboys signed James Washington from the Steelers and drafted Jalen Tolbert in the third round. However, it’s unlikely either of those two commands a higher target share than Schultz this season.
This passing attack is looking like CeeDee Lamb as the clear WR1, Michael Gallup (when healthy) as the WR2, and next on the target hierarchy should be Schultz. His 12.2 ppg from last season really feels like his floor.
Here’s the thing — the Cowboys aren’t healthy. Gallup is going to miss at least the first couple of weeks of the season as he recovers from his torn ACL. Washington broke his foot in training camp and may miss all of September. This all points to Schultz operating as Prescott’s second-favorite target behind Lamb.
Schultz’s ADP for 2022
Schultz’s ADP is around 60th overall as the TE6. I like Schultz at that price, but I still view him as firmly below the top tier of tight ends. As a result, whether I draft Schultz is relative to the wide receivers and running backs available around him. In our consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Schultz sits 67th overall as the TE5.
Given his ADP, I often find myself preferring other positions to a tight end. If Schultz ends up averaging around 14 ppg, he’ll be a steal at his ADP. I definitely like him more than the tight ends behind him. However, the gap between Schultz and the low-end TE1s is several rounds. At cost, I usually find myself waiting.