After catching two passes on the Buffalo Bills’ first drive of the game, Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid suffered a hit to the head from a Miami Dolphins defender.
He was not on the field for the Bills’ final play of their scoring drive, a touchdown pass to James Cook on fourth-and-three.
Dalton Kincaid Injury Update
Kincaid returned to the field before the end of the first quarter, which initially allayed some of the concerns for fantasy managers.
Per TruMedia, Kincaid only played 19 offensive snaps in the game, compared to 24 for Dawson Knox. He did run a route on 15 of those snaps, but the rotation with Knox was concerning and a little confusing.
We did not get a concrete injury update on Kincaid, but he was evaluated for a concussion during the game and cleared to return.
The hit to the head came on the game’s fourth snap, so he played another 15 snaps afterward. That would suggest the concussion was not the issue but raises a separate question about his usage.
Fantasy Implications of Kincaid’s Week 2 Performance
Kincaid was on the field for 15 passing snaps and four rushing snaps. If you discount the snaps he missed while being evaluated for an injury, he basically played every passing snap that he was able to. However, the fact he played on just four rushing snaps compared to the 17 for Knox is frustrating.
Sure, fantasy football managers get nothing for blocking, so in those terms, it does not matter significantly. In Week 1, Kincaid was in a similar first-half rotation in terms of snaps before dominating the snaps in the second half when the Bills were chasing the game.
After having two receptions for 17 yards on those first four snaps, Kincaid saw just two more targets, finishing with four receptions for 33 yards. A return of 7.3 fantasy points in PPR is not a disaster for Kincaid’s managers, but it is not what you paid for in drafts. Through two weeks, Kincaid has a total of 9.4 fantasy points on six targets. That will have alarm bells ringing.
The Bills appeared to have laid out their stall. When they are running the ball, Knox takes the majority of the snaps. When they are in throwing situations, they turn to Kincaid. Interestingly, Buffalo is playing more 12 personnel through two weeks (23.3% of snaps) than it did last season (17.6% of snaps). Therefore, that should have correlated to more opportunities and snaps, not less.
The problem is how the Bills are behaving when they are in 12 personnel. They have 24 snaps this year in that personnel, and 15 of them have been runs. That leaves just nine times when they have passed with two tight ends on the field, limiting Kincaid’s opportunities.
This is a major concern because we expect Buffalo to be one of the best teams in the AFC, and if it is limiting opportunities for Kincaid in those scenarios, it caps his fantasy ceiling.
The numbers are generally confusing because the Bills have only run three snaps of play action through two weeks. The positive for Kincaid is he played two of those snaps, compared to one for Knox.
From a fantasy perspective, the good news is that Kincaid is still playing in those passing situations. If we saw the reverse split of Kincaid playing predominantly on rushing downs and Know on passing downs, there would be a major cause for concern. Another positive is that the Bills made a concerted effort to get Kincaid the ball before his injury. That is a good sign going forward.
In terms of actionable advice, we’re still in wait-and-see mode. Right now, there is not a lot you can do if you have Kincaid on your roster. You paid the price you paid for his season-long production, and there is still time for that. Selling him low is not a smart move, and unless you double-dipped at tight end, you are not likely to find a more consistent option with the same ceiling on waivers.
If you are targeting Kincaid, now is the time to float out an offer. With two low scores, his fantasy manager might be panicking. Throw out a low-ball offer and see where the panic level is. You might just snap up a bargain that you can rely on later or someone you can flip for another asset at a different position when he has a big game or two.