Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid was considered by many to be the top one in the 2023 rookie class. How quickly can he overtake Dawson Knox as the Bills’ TE1, and will that lead to immediate fantasy value? What is Kincaid’s 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Dalton Kincaid’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The Bills made Kincaid the first tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, selecting him with the 25th overall pick. Kincaid broke out at a young age and had a stellar final season in college, racking up 890 yards and eight touchdowns on 70 receptions.
Normally, we don’t care much for rookie tight ends in redraft leagues. The tight end position is the most difficult for prospects to fully grasp at the NFL level. It typically takes a couple of years.
With that said, we have seen rookie tight ends matter in fantasy. And not just the outliers like 2002 Jeremy Shockey or 2017 Evan Engram. Just last season, Greg Dulcich started to emerge later in the season. In 2021, Kyle Pitts finished as a fantasy TE1.
Kincaid will likely open the year behind Knox, but it’s not as if Knox is this prolific producer or incredible blocker standing in Kincaid’s way. Kincaid is better than Knox, and it’s only a matter of time before he becomes the starter.
Should You Draft Dalton Kincaid This Year?
In terms of NFL landing spot, Kincaid really couldn’t have asked for a better one. It’s not just that he’s tethered to a young, elite quarterback in Josh Allen. The Bills are a pass-first offense, as evidenced by the 61% neutral-game-script-pass rate last season.
They also score a lot of points, resulting in red-zone opportunities for their pass catchers. Despite just 97 receptions over the past two seasons combined, Knox has scored 15 touchdowns over that span.
The Bills are also desperately in need of a second option in the passing game behind Stefon Diggs. They tried out Gabe Davis last season, but he’s just not a starting-caliber receiver. James Cook can catch passes out of the backfield, but I would hardly call him a true receiving back.
The rest of the roster consists of Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, and Trent Sherfield. There’s definitely a scenario where Kincaid can become the No. 2 option in the passing game.
Unfortunately, fantasy managers are already quite bullish on the rookie. His ADP is TE15, No. 145 overall. While I believe in Kincaid long-term, I just can’t endorse drafting a rookie tight end to be my starter. I have Kincaid at TE18, opting to put a couple more experienced tight ends ahead of him.
With that said, there’s definite upside with Kincaid that doesn’t exist in some of the guys taken around him. I would say Kincaid’s ceiling is higher than that of Pat Freiermuth or Dalton Schultz.
Given Kincaid’s cost, I will probably not draft him. But he’s certainly not someone I’m avoiding either.
