Dalton Kincaid joins an elite Buffalo Bills offense and has the physical tools to be a fantasy football asset in short order, but we have a long list of rookie tight ends that struggle to produce in their first season. Is Kincaid the exception to the rule?
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Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Outlook
The Bills took Kincaid with the 25th overall pick in April despite having Dawson Knox under contract for at least the next two seasons. The incumbent has never caught 50 passes in a season, but he has scored 15 times over the past two years and, even if vaulted in the depth chart, figures to get some run.
Devin Singletary signed with the Texans this offseason which puts James Cook in a position to be the lead in this backfield. That adjustment doesn’t mean anything for the TE upside in this offense, but the addition of Damien Harris could.
Touchdown vultures are typically a knock on the value of surrounding running backs, but with 10 of Knox’s touchdowns over the past two seasons coming inside the 15-yard line, a back like Harris isn’t going to help Kincaid’s potential.
The bulk of the receiver targets are going toward Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, as they did last season. The next time Diggs fails to catch 100 balls for the Bills will be the first, and Davis saw his target share nearly double last season, so it’s safe to label these two as the primary options in this high-volume passing game.
How Secure Is Kincaid’s Role as the Pass-Catching TE in Buffalo?
It’s hard to imagine using first-round draft capital on someone whose skill set you’re not prepared to build around, so I think his role is reasonably safe.
That said, few tight ends have target competition within the position, and he certainly will have that.
On the plus side for those looking to invest in the rookie is that Knox has dropped 10% of his career targets. He’s been a viable option (over three catches per game in consecutive seasons), but this team clearly isn’t satisfied with “viable” and wants to further their offensive versatility.
I feel good about Kincaid outproducing Knox, though you need to take the veteran’s presence into consideration before making this pick.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Kincaid at His ADP?
I don’t mean to straddle the fence, but drafting Kincaid is entirely based on roster construction and draft flow. I’m having a tough time getting Kincaid above TE12, so if 11 are off the board in your 12-team league, go for it.
In this situation, if you’re the last manager to select a TE, you can simply wait an extra few rounds, as it is unlikely that any team is reaching for a second tight end. In this scenario, I’m in.
The Bills have been a top-10 pass-rate team in three straight seasons, and I don’t see that changing. I understand the upside case and agree with it. But if you’re playing in a deeper league and are forced to use mid-round draft capital on Kincaid, I’ll pass. By paying that price, you’ll naturally be slow to cut ties if we don’t see a fantasy-friendly role develop.
Under no circumstance am I drafting multiple tight ends. Go ahead — take Kincaid and hope that he is the second rookie tight end over the past decade to average 10 half-PPR points per game (minimum 10 games played) … but only if you understand that the TE spot on your roster could be a fluid situation.