The Buffalo Bills will face the Denver Broncos on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Dalton Kincaid.
Is Dalton Kincaid Playing vs. the Broncos?
Kincaid practiced in full all week with a knee injury. Like Buffalo’s other offensive stars, he’s healthy but will play sparingly with the Bills locked into the No. 2 seed.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Dalton Kincaid on Wild Card Weekend?
I’m bullish on the Bills from a trending standpoint, even in a matchup that finished the regular season atop our Defense+ metrics, and Dalton Kincaid is a part of that optimism.
- 2024: Targeted on 27.2% of routes
- 2023: Targeted on 19.8% of routes
Being on the field has been the problem, and that’s a real problem. Kincaid hasn’t played half the snaps in any of his three games back after missing a month, though the underlying metrics support the skill set, and I’m okay with betting on talent at this position more than others.
A fully functional version of Kincaid was on the field for 63.4% of snaps last season. To me, that potential is in play now that we are in a win-or-go-home setting, and Dawson Knox just doesn’t offer the same juice to an offense that needs to produce at a high level for this team to excel.
With Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta on bye this week, I wouldn’t look at you sideways if you projected Kincaid to lead the position in PPR points during the NFL’s second season, an upside that isn’t being priced into his playoff-long ADP right now.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, Kincaid is projected to score 14 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 6.3 receptions for 61.1 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs' Defense
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the backups flopped against the Broncos.
With the varsity team back for the Divisional Round, Kansas City demonstrated the type of disruptiveness this unit can generate at full strength. Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy game plan overwhelmed the Texans. The Chiefs generated pressure on 73.3% of their blitzes against Houston, the highest by any team to send 15+ blitzes in a game this season.
The only area of concern to emerge from the Divisional Round was the third-down defense. Excluding Week 18, Kansas City allowed its second-highest third-down conversion rate (58.8%) all season. The only higher rate they allowed was to their AFC Championship Game opponent, as the Bills converted 60% of their third downs in Week 11.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking ahead of their eighth straight AFC title game. That's a familiar story and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship TE PPR Rankings
1) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. BUF)
2) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at KC)
4) Zach Ertz | WAS (at PHI)
5) Noah Gray | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Dawson Knox | BUF (at KC)
7) John Bates | WAS (at PHI)
8) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. WAS)
9) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at PHI)
10) Quintin Morris | BUF (at KC)
11) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. BUF)
12) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Anthony Firkser | NYJ ()
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
