The Buffalo Bills will face the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Dalton Kincaid.
Is Dalton Kincaid Playing vs. the Ravens?
Kincaid was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he is expected to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Dalton Kincaid in the Divisional Round?
I might be one of the few people yet to sell their Dalton Kincaid stock, and even I am beginning to get nervous. Driving my optimism around the second-year tight end was the idea that he could establish himself as essentially the WR2 in this offense.
That might not be wrong, but it’s certainly not clearly right. The Bills are using a pass-catcher rotation that is good for keeping defenses guessing but bad for our ability to roster any of them confidently.
Bills pass catchers’ route counts vs. Broncos:
- Khalil Shakir: 23
- Kincaid: 21
- Mack Hollins: 17
- Curtis Samuel: 16
- Keon Coleman: 16
- Dawson Knox: 15
- Amari Cooper: 13
His ranking second on that list is, on its face, good to see, though with the numbers that tightly packed, it’s hard to have a good feel for this rotation. He picked up a pair of targets on four routes in the middle of the first quarter on Sunday, but he earned just a single target on his 17 routes after that, a usage floor that is very much in play this week.
If the surrounding talent soaks up the majority of the ownership, maybe I can talk myself into Kincaid. He did, after all, lead the Bills in catches (five) and targets (seven) in the Week 4 loss to these Ravens.
We are going to be asked to take some risks this week, and the second game on both days (this one and Washington/Detroit) is where I’ll be doing it. If you wanted to single-stack Josh Allen with Kincaid as part of a Derrick Henry lineup that saw you use cheap pass-catchers in that Commanders/Lions game, I wouldn’t fault you.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Sunday, Kincaid is projected to score 11.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 5.2 receptions for 50.1 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Ravens' Defense
The 2023 Ravens led the league in scoring defense but only ranked 10th in Defense+. This year's Ravens fell to ninth in scoring defense but fared better in Defense+.
That improved form held true in the Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. While Baltimore's 75.3 (C) grade was nothing special, that's usually all this offense needs to win. The Ravens were able to exploit Russell Wilson's tendency to hold the ball, averaging their second-highest sack rate (11.8%) of the season.
Since moving Kyle Hamilton to safety in Week 11, the Ravens rank first in points per drive, first in EPA per dropback, first in third-down defense, and first in red-zone defense (including playoffs).
Paired with a run defense that has been elite all season, Baltimore suddenly looks like one of the scariest No. 3 seeds in recent memory. With the offense playing at an elite level led by presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, Baltimore could be better equipped to make the Super Bowl than last year's team, even without the advantage of the top seed.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round TE PPR Rankings
1) Sam LaPorta | DET (vs. WAS)
2) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. HOU)
3) Mark Andrews | BAL (at BUF)
4) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. LAR)
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. BAL)
6) Zach Ertz | WAS (at DET)
7) Isaiah Likely | BAL (at BUF)
8) Dalton Schultz | HOU (at KC)
9) Noah Gray | KC (vs. HOU)
10) Tyler Higbee | LAR (at PHI)
11) Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. BAL)
12) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. LAR)
13) Cade Stover | HOU (at KC)
14) Colby Parkinson | LAR (at PHI)
15) Brock Wright | DET (vs. WAS)
16) John Bates | WAS (at DET)
17) Charlie Kolar | BAL (at BUF)
18) Davis Allen | LAR (at PHI)
19) Hunter Long | LAR (at PHI)
20) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at DET)
21) Shane Zylstra | DET (vs. WAS)
22) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. HOU)
23) Quintin Morris | BUF (vs. BAL)
Ravens at Bills Trends and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season ...
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).
