The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Dalton Kincaid.
Is Dalton Kincaid Playing vs. the Chiefs?
Kincaid was listed on the injury report this week for a knee injury but was a full participant in practice throughout the week. He carries no injury designation heading into the game vs. the Chiefs.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Dalton Kincaid in the AFC Conference Championship Game?
You’re going to have to do some wish casting during a two-game slate, and for me, that spot is Dalton Kincaid. The production has been downright pitiful, that I can’t deny.
Eight hundred and thirty; that’s a big number. That’s the sort of yardage projection I had for Kincaid entering this season.
Instead, that’s the number of instances this season in which a player has had 54+ receiving yards in a game, a list bereft of Kincaid’s name.
And now I’m recommending you go this route?!?
The touchdown equity isn’t there — Week 9 was Kincaid’s last end-zone target — but this price point is getting goofy. Kincaid played the majority of Buffalo’s offensive snaps for the first time since early November, and he has a 12.4 aDOT this postseason, not a bad profile for a team with an implied point total of 23 this week.
DraftKings pricing, Conference Championship Weekend:
Kincaid and DeVonta Smith: $9,400
Travis Kelce and Curtis Samuel: $9,500
Listen, I’m not saying Kincaid is a must-play. I’m saying he’s a must-consider.
The recent box scores are ugly, and the vibes aren’t high right now. Nevertheless, everyone has a price, and I think we are at that point with Kincaid.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Kincaid is projected to score 8.4 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 3.8 receptions for 36.5 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs' Defense
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the backups flopped against the Broncos.
With the varsity team back for the Divisional Round, Kansas City demonstrated the type of disruptiveness this unit can generate at full strength. Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy game plan overwhelmed the Texans. The Chiefs generated pressure on 73.3% of their blitzes against Houston, the highest by any team to send 15+ blitzes in a game this season.
The only area of concern to emerge from the Divisional Round was the third-down defense. Excluding Week 18, Kansas City allowed its second-highest third-down conversion rate (58.8%) all season. The only higher rate they allowed was to their AFC Championship Game opponent, as the Bills converted 60% of their third downs in Week 11.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking ahead of their eighth straight AFC title game. That's a familiar story and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship TE PPR Rankings
1) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. BUF)
2) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at KC)
4) Zach Ertz | WAS (at PHI)
5) Noah Gray | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Dawson Knox | BUF (at KC)
7) John Bates | WAS (at PHI)
8) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. WAS)
9) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at PHI)
10) Quintin Morris | BUF (at KC)
11) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. BUF)
12) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Anthony Firkser | NYJ ()
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
