The Philadelphia Eagles offense fell off considerably last season compared to the juggernaut it was the year before.
Can new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore fix things? Would that make TE Dallas Goedert a value in fantasy football drafts? What does his projection say?
Dallas Goedert’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 9.6
- Receptions: 63
- Receiving Yards: 786
- Receiving TDs: 3.7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Goedert This Year?
For years, fantasy managers waited for Zach Ertz to move out of the way so Goedert could take over. When it finally happened, we walked away thinking, “That’s it?”
Looking at Goedert’s fantasy points per game by year, there’s no clear indicator as to when he became the TE1. Goedert did finish as the overall TE5 in 2022, but at 11.8 fantasy points per game, he wasn’t at any sort of significant advantage over streaming.
Last year, Goedert had his worst season since 2019, averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game. Goedert’s yards per reception fell to a career-low 10.0. His target share held steady at 19.1%, but he was only targeted on 19.4% of his routes run, 19th in the league.
Two years ago, Goedert had an 8.8-yard aDOT (average depth of target). Last season, it was down to 5.4.
Goedert isn’t commanding targets at a high enough rate, and when he does, they are largely close to the line of scrimmage. In theory, Goedert should be fine as an elite red-zone option. However, for some reason, despite being 6’5″, 256 pounds, he’s not often deployed in that manner.
Throughout his career, Goedert has never cracked the top 12 in red-zone targets. His single-season career high in touchdowns is five. Last year, he only scored three times.
When doing Goedert’s projection, it was very tempting to give him a higher touchdown share. But the data doesn’t support it. Nevertheless, I did project Goedert to score 4.6 times, which would be the second-highest mark of his career, to go along with 66 receptions for 725 yards.
Even with an increased touchdown projection, as well as a slight uptick in yards per reception and catch rate, Goedert only projected out for 9.76 fantasy points per game. That put him at TE11, one spot above the PFN consensus projections, as well as his TE12 ADP.
It’s very difficult to get excited about Jalen Hurts’ third option in the passing game. And he’s not behind just any two wide receivers — he’s behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, one of the best WR duos in the league. Combined with Hurts’ penchant for running and the addition of Saquon Barkley, Goedert just isn’t a priority in the Eagles offense.
I ranked Goedert at TE12, but I don’t really see a world where I draft him. There’s just no excitement with Goedert. No upside. He’s likely going to be around 10 PPG, give or take a point in either direction. You can find that level of production in the final rounds of your draft or on the waiver wire.
