Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert has been a stable producer for fantasy managers but now faces increased target competition. With so many options in this offense, is Goedert overvalued? Should fantasy football managers draft Goedert at his ADP this season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Dallas Goedert’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
As a talent, I love Goedert. He’s big, athletic, and has great hands. He’s everything you could want in a professional tight end.
From a fantasy standpoint, Goedert is … OK. We saw him operate alongside Zach Ertz, and he was a low TE1. With the job to himself, Goedert did post a TE5 finish last year, but he only averaged 11.8 PPR fantasy points per game.
That’s good. It’s better than replacement-level for sure. But it’s not exactly moving the needle.
One thing Goedert has going for him is he’s always on the field. His 90% snap rate was third in the league. He also ran a route on 84% of Eagles pass plays. That was good for sixth in the league. His 2.24 yards per route run was third in the league. By any measure of efficiency, Goedert is nearly elite.
The problem for fantasy football is total volume. He was only targeted on 14.7% of his routes run, 14th in the league. His quarterback is Jalen Hurts, a guy more apt to take off than check down. If Hurts is going to check it down this season, he now has D’Andre Swift as another viable option.
Goedert was already firmly behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in the target hierarchy. While I expect him to remain ahead of Swift, that’s still another talented pass catcher to contend with.
Is Goedert a Good Fantasy Pick?
The struggle with Goedert is it’s very difficult to envision him having a better season than last year. 11.8 ppg may very well be good enough for another top-five finish. But there’s no way I’m trying to draft that at his TE5 ADP, No. 58 overall.
I have Goedert ranked as my TE7. Two spots within the top seven at a onesie position is significant. That pretty much takes me out of the Goedert running, which is kind of the point.
A random back-end TE1/streamer can get you 10 ppg. For less than 2.0 ppg more, you’re paying nearly a 10-round premium. That’s just not worth it.
Goedert is the TE6 in our PFN consensus rankings, right in between me and the consensus. On the whole, we are below ADP on him as well, though.
There’s just not a lot of upside with a guy like Goedert, making him a suboptimal pick at his ADP.