The Dallas Cowboys are back on the road for their final regular-season game against the Washington Commanders.
If the Cowboys want home-field advantage and higher seeding in the postseason, they need to win this game.
What key aspects and players in this game could be game-changers for both teams?
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Game Preview
The Cowboys are going into this game with the upper hand in nearly every matchup. In fact, playing a complete game will be essential for the team ahead of the postseason, but it doesn’t mean they can let up.
Their postseason seeding relies on this win, meaning a win is essential if they want home-field advantage back at AT&T Stadium.
Weather could be an issue in this game, with windy conditions and precipitation in the forecast.
Mike McCarthy constantly reiterates that wind and rain are two factors when game planning, not so much the cold temperatures.
Going into this game, the biggest question is the health of the Cowboys’ offensive line, specifically with Tyler Smith.
Smith is dealing with a plantar fascia tear in his foot, which he suffered last week against the Lions. He remains questionable for this game.
A solid offensive line is vital in this game because the run game with Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle needs to be established. This is the Cowboys offense’s last opportunity to show that the duo can be a dynamic threat in the playoffs.
As for the Cowboys’ defense, it seems Johnathan Hankins is trending toward a return. Hankins has been dealing with an ankle and knee injury that has kept him out of games since Week 15.
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He is a vital part of the defense’s run defense, which has struggled this season. Hankins can use this game to get reacclimated ahead of the playoffs next week.
If the defense can pressure Sam Howell and not allow him to establish a run, they can open up opportunities for turnovers.
All three phases of this game can be used to tie loose ends and gain confidence for the Cowboys.
Cowboys-Commanders Stats From Inside Edge
- The Cowboys have scored on 50% of their drives in the first half this season — third best in the NFL.
- The Commanders’ defense has allowed scores on 52.2% of opponent drives in the first half this season — worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Cowboys need to score early in this game, get the lead, and close it out early. This game gives them the advantage in most, if not all, of their individual matchups.
Because weather could be a factor in this game, the Cowboys’ offense needs to drive down the field and score touchdowns in this game and not solely rely on Brandon Aubrey.
- Cowboys WRs have 196.1 receiving yards per game this season — third best in the NFL.
- The Commanders have averaged 188.8 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — worst in the NFL.
Analysis: This will be a favorable matchup for the Cowboys’ wide receivers, especially with the health of the Commanders’ secondary.
The Commanders will rely on the youth of their cornerback room, as they put three cornerbacks on injured reserve this week.
Depending on if the rain/snow mix comes down during the game, Dak Prescott might not pass the ball deep down the field. Regardless, a young secondary will struggle to contain CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks.
- Commanders’ RBs have averaged 9.6 yards after the catch this season — tied third best in the NFL.
- The Cowboys have allowed 8.9 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — tied fourth worst in the NFL.
- Brian Robinson (WAS) has averaged 12.3 yards after the catch this season — best of qualified running backs.
- The Cowboys have allowed 5.7 yards after catch this season — fifth worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Cowboys’ run defense will be tested with Brian Robinson’s ability to push for extra yardage. This will be another test for their ability to tackle and not allow the extra yardage to stack up.
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Keeping the Commanders’ offense behind the sticks and not allowing them to establish a run game will be key. If Sam Howell is forced to pass under pressure, the Cowboys’ defense will have more opportunities to generate turnovers.
- Tony Pollard (DAL) is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on rushes up the middle this season — tied sixth best of qualified RBs.
- The Commanders have allowed 4.9 yards per carry when defending rushes up the middle this season — second worst in the NFL.
Analysis: This will be the last time the Cowboys’ offense can create a spark in the run game ahead of the playoffs. Keeping the calls consistent to establish the run throughout the game will be critical.
Ball distribution between Pollard and Rico Dowdle could also improve the run game’s production overall.
Although Pollard has struggled to be as productive as initially hoped as the team’s starting running back this season, he averages four yards per carry, which isn’t bad considering the yardage can stack up if the play calls are constant in establishing the run.
- The Commanders are averaging 5.9 yards per carry on rushes to the right side of the field since Week 14 — fifth best in the NFL.
- The Cowboys have allowed 6.7 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right since Week 14 — second worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Cowboys’ linebacker and safety rooms have struggled with containing the run overall this season. However, the key is to contain the run up front and not allow explosive plays.
Last week, DeMarcus Lawrence showed a vintage version of himself that contained the edges and didn’t allow the Lions to run on short-yard situations.
If the Cowboys can do this again to shut down the run, this will be an easy game for them to win and take their top spot in the NFC East.
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