Riding a six-game winning streak against the Dallas Cowboys, the New England Patriots will attempt Sunday to slow down the NFL’s second-highest scoring offense. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 6-1 lifetime against the Cowboys, winning the last six matchups with both New England and as the Cleveland Browns head coach in 1995.
Belichick has a seemingly unsolvable problem on his hands with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. The NFL’s active leader in passer rating, Prescott has continued his elite form through five games this season.
Dallas Cowboys offense vs. New England Patriots defense
Prescott is currently second in NFL passer rating (116.9) to only Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. With Wilson out at least the next six weeks, Prescott becomes the league’s active leader in that metric. Though irrelevant to team wins, it’s imperative to look at individual numbers like this to showcase just how terrific the Cowboys’ signal-caller has been playing.
Dak Prescott vs. Patriots defense
Prescott is completing passes at a high rate and currently sits with a completion rate of 73.9% (second in the NFL). He’s averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing far less than he did a season ago prior to his injury. But his team is also rushing the ball better than in 2020. Prescott has taken good care of the ball, with just 3 interceptions compared to 13 touchdown passes.
He’s moved freely around the pocket in his return from a graphic leg injury just over a year ago. Prescott has picked up his level of play from last season, and if Week 5’s performance against the New York Giants is any indication, the production on the field is soon to follow.
The Patriots’ defense is perhaps the stiffest test for the Cowboys to date. They’re allowing just 206.6 passing yards per game and have allowed the fifth-fewest points all year long. Led by Matt Judon on the outside, they’ve held all but one opponent to fewer than 22 points this season.
The Patriots were so impressed with their secondary unit that they decided it was time to move on from Stephon Gilmore before he returns from the PUP list next week. J.C. Jackson and Jonathan Jones anchor their play outside, as the duo has combined for 7 pass breakups and 3 interceptions.
It’s a battle of strength vs. strength when Prescott challenges the Patriots outside, but be on the lookout for Patriots LB Ja’Whaun Bentley. The fourth-year pro has continued his emergence and is second on the team in pass breakups. Bentley’s prowess underneath gives New England a slight advantage.
Advantage: Patriots
Cowboys skill players vs. Patriots secondary
Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger are quite the safety complement to veteran Devin McCourty. Their play in coverage assists on underneath routes, which allows McCourty to roam free over the top. They’ve confused passing attacks all season long and held even Tom Brady without a touchdown in coverage. In total, the starters in the secondary have been assigned just 3 of the team’s allowed 6 passing touchdowns.
The Cowboys’ skill players, namely their pass catchers, have lived up to the name on occasion this season. With CeeDee Lamb getting back on track against New York, Amari Cooper leveling out, and TE Dalton Schultz continuing to dominate, the top trio for Prescott is as stacked as ever.
Combined, that trio for Dallas has hauled in 3 more touchdowns than New England has allowed this year. They’re also averaging 12.6 yards per catch. As good as the Patriots’ aging unit is on the back end, the skill players for Dallas can hang with them. Add in Ezekiel Elliott, Cedrick Wilson, and Tony Pollard, and you have to side with Big D.
Advantage: Cowboys
Cowboys offensive line vs. Patriots defensive line
From left to right, the Cowboys’ offensive line has been as terrific as ever in 2021. Arguably, their most significant reason for success has been the play of LT Tyron Smith and RG Zack Martin, both physical maulers in the run game who excel in pass protection. LG Connor Williams made our Team of the Week, while RT Terence Steele has done an admirable job filling in for La’el Collins.
For the Patriots, it’s a similar situation on the defensive line. Judon has been their best player — on either side of the ball — this season. He’s currently tied for second in the NFL with 6.5 sacks, while his 8 total tackles for loss are the most in the league. He’s been terrific and has begun to demand double-teams and scheme-specific adjustments from opposing offenses.
Reaping the benefits of Judon’s impressive play have been Deatrich Wise and situational pass rushers Chase Winovich and Josh Uche. However, the biggest discrepancy for this matchup will be Cowboys center Tyler Biadasz against the interior pass rush of Davon Godchaux and Christian Barmore.
If Judon can continue to excel outside, he’ll take help away from Biadasz, allowing the combination of Godchaux and Barmore to get home. It helps that Judon gets a favorable matchup himself against Steele.
Martin, however, will have to be good enough to lend a hand outside while keeping his head on a swivel for interior pressure. That’s a big ask, but the future Hall of Famer is likely up for the challenge.
Advantage: Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys defense vs. New England Patriots offense
Patriots QB Mac Jones leads all rookie quarterbacks in a bevy of statistical outputs this season. Some of it is scheme, sure, while some of it is talent. But for the most part, a lot of Jones’ “leading in stat categories” stems from opportunity. The Patriots rushing attack has been suboptimal this season, forcing Jones into pass-first situations, giving him more opportunities than others in this class of rookie quarterbacks.
Mac Jones vs. Cowboys defense
While Jones is leading the rookies in all major passing categories, he’s also in the top five among all NFL starters in a few more. He’s currently fifth in the league in completion percentage (71.1%), yet he ranks 27th in yards per attempt (6.5). Jones, and New England’s scheme, are opting for short-area throws before they test anything downfield, which has become a detriment to their offense.
The Patriots’ offense hasn’t been able to keep a lead nor are they built to come back from a deficit. Despite his high completion percentage, when Jones has tried to push the ball downfield, there have been mixed results. The most concerning part of Jones’ 5 total interceptions is that all of them have come on throws over the middle of the field.
It’s one thing to test your receivers on the outside against top-notch cornerbacks, but it’s entirely a different aspect to lose sight of underneath defenders or patrolling safeties for interceptions. With Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown, the Cowboys don’t really have to worry about being beat on the outside.
In the middle of the field, the mismatches are Damontae Kazee, Jayron Kearse, and LB Leighton Vander Esch. LVE’s ability in coverage should go a long way for the Cowboys in stopping yards after the catch for Patriots receivers.
Advantage: Cowboys
Patriots weapons vs. Cowboys secondary
New England is led by WR Jakobi Meyers. The third-year receiver is on pace to set career-highs in every major receiving category. However, he’s yet to catch his first NFL touchdown pass since joining the league in 2019. Meyers is the Patriots’ top slot target while they continue to use their running backs and tight ends heavily in the passing game as well.
In fact, their outside wide receivers (Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne) rank just third and fifth on the team in total targets this season, respectively. The key to slowing this receiving corps down is limiting the underneath receivers and checkdown options for Jones.
With the Patriots all but abandoning the run at times this season, it appears likely that they’ll continue their short-area passing attack against Dallas. The Cowboys, after all, are allowing the most passing yards per game this season as a defense. By allowing 311 passing yards per game, Dallas is just one of two teams in the NFL to allow more than 300 yards through the air per contest.
This season, they’ve allowed 10 passing touchdowns despite NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate Diggs’ league-leading 6 interceptions. The Cowboys’ secondary is a talented unit overall and holds the advantage over New England’s pass catchers. But don’t expect them to stop yielding yards in this meeting.
Advantage: Cowboys
Patriots offensive line vs. Cowboys front seven
Rookie linebacker Micah Parsons has taken nicely to a position switch in the NFL. From stand-up, three-down linebacker in college to pass rusher in the NFL, Parsons is leading the charge on the outside for Dallas. Despite not having Demarcus Lawrence healthy, the Cowboys have recorded 9 sacks as a team. Parsons has freed up time for Osa Odighizuwa to have a breakout-type season so far as well.
This all goes without mentioning embattled defensive end Randy Gregory, who has also shown to be a force off the edge this season for Dallas. New England’s unit will have to be terrific in all facets against this unit, but especially in pass sets.
While the quick passing of Jones helps his offensive line, the Patriots’ OL has been a bit of a disappointment in 2021. The interior guard duo of Michael Onwenu and Shaq Mason are the bread and butter, but their tackle debacle will come to a head if they can’t get plus-play against the Cowboys’ talent on the outside.
Advantage: Cowboys
Betting line and game prediction
Belichick has won his last six meetings against Dallas, but there’s a reason the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites heading into Foxborough this time around. Dallas holds a distinct advantage in nearly every aspect of this game. New England’s strength will be tested against Dallas’ strength (Prescott), while their weaknesses may be exposed.
Parsons and Gregory should have a field day off the edge and force errant Jones throws to the waiting arms of Diggs. It’s a recipe for disaster for the rookie quarterback.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Patriots 20