The best part of Christmas is the anticipation.
We’ve eyed those presents under the tree for what feels like an eternity. Now we finally get to see what’s inside.
The Miami Dolphins are the same way. For months, we haven’t gotten a true sense of who they are.
Now, with Christmas Week upon us, the mystery will be revealed — beginning Sunday at home against the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Game Preview
We joked in this week’s PFN Miami Dolphins Podcast that this is the Spider-Man Meme Bowl.
But Vegas is quite serious about it.
The Dolphins are the slightest of home favorites Sunday, laying just one point late in the week. While Miami and Dallas have the third and fifth-ranked defenses in terms of EPA per play, the betting public expects a shootout.
The total — 50 — is the highest of the 12 Sunday games.
While the Cowboys hold a 8-7 all-time series edge — with one of those wins coming in Super Bowl VI — some of the more recent trends favor the Dolphins.
Miami is 16-4 when favored under Mike McDaniel and have won 18 of the team’s last 21 at home.
The Dolphins with a win would clinch back-to-back playoff berths for the first time in more than two decades.
Let’s take a deeper dive into this matchup’s key stats, courtesy of Inside Edge.
Seven Cowboys-Dolphins Stats From Inside Edge
Stat: The Cowboys have scored 73 touchdowns in the red zone since the 2022 season — third-most in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 62 TDs when defending in the red zone since the 2022 season — fifth-most in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins’ red zone defense has been about the only thing Vic Fangio has been unable to fix this year. Miami allows touchdowns on 65.9% of its opponents’ trips inside the 20 — the league’s 27th-worst rate.
Stat: The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of 49.1% since Week 12 — fourth-best in the NFL. The Cowboys defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 53.2% since Week 12 — fourth-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa has a passer rating of 103.8 on third downs this season — fifth-best in the league among quarterbacks with 10 or more starts.
Stat: Cowboys wide receivers have averaged just 2.5 yards after the catch since Week 12 — second-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just 2.4 yards after catch per reception to WRs since Week 12 — best in the NFL.
Analysis: Michael Gallup is basically giving the Cowboys nothing as their WR3 in recent weeks. In the Cowboys’ last five games, he has eight catches for 101 yards and one touchdown.
Stat: Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) has 27 receptions since Week 12 — tied for fourth-most among qualified wide receivers. The Cowboys have allowed 58 receptions to WRs since Week 12 — third-most in the NFL.
Analysis: Waddle was a beast when the Dolphins needed him last week, going for 142 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. McDaniel should keep that in mind even with Tyreek Hill likely back in the lineup.
Stat: The Dolphins are averaging 6.5 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — best in the NFL. Only one team has allowed more rushing yards per carry (5.7) when defending rushes to the left this season than the Cowboys.
Analysis: With Terron Armstead back (and playing great) and Johnathan Hankins out for the second straight week, expect Raheem Mostert to improve on last week’s 2.8 yards-per-carry average.
Stat: The Dolphins have thrown for 11.9 yards per attempt on passes up the middle this season — best in the NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 9.9 yards per dropback when defending passes up the middle this season — third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Cowboys’ safety play hasn’t been great for some time, and 2023 is no different. The three listed as starters — Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse, and Malik Hooker — have combined to allow completions on 67.2% of their targets for 8.7 yards per attempt and a 96.6 passer rating.
MORE: What Are Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa’s ‘Superpowers’?
Stat: Dolphins tight ends are averaging just over two receptions per game this season — among the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys have allowed just 3.6 receptions per game to TEs this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
Analysis: Durham Smythe does a lot of very valuable things in Mike McDaniel’s offense, but his 24 catches as of Friday tied for just 151st among all NFL players and 30th among tight ends.
Cowboys vs. Dolphins Predictions
Adam Beasley: Dolphins
David Bearman: Dolphins
Dalton Miller: Dolphins
Jay Morrison: Dolphins
Dallas Robinson: Dolphins
For all of PFN’s Week 16 predictions, click here.
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