The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a disappointing end to the 2021 season despite their 12-5 record. Expectations have shifted after seeing several key starters depart in free agency. The 2022 Cowboys have a win total line of 10 despite being viewed as a legitimate Super Bowl contender last year.
Let’s examine the Cowboys’ current record prediction, projected win totals, intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and odds of winning the division, conference, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesers sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of July 10 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Dallas Cowboys record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesers has provided odds and spreads for all of the Cowboys’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, the Cowboys are projected as favorites in 11 games and underdogs in six. If the season matches those predictions, the Cowboys will finish with an 11-6 record following Week 18 of the 2022 season.
The 2021 Cowboys proved that it’s never as easy as just counting who is the favorite each week, though. Oddsmakers had Dallas’ win total at 9.5 games last year. They easily covered thanks to surprise victories over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2 and the New England Patriots in Week 6.
Currently predicted to win the NFC East, the Cowboys are a playoff favorite who must fend off competitors. Even if the Cowboys are projected to eclipse the 10-win mark if we go by game-by-game odds, the margin for error is small. Of the Cowboys’ 17 games, seven currently have a spread of 3 points or less on either side.
The Cowboys’ 2022 schedule is difficult, thanks to matchups against Super Bowl contenders. A schedule packed against Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Tennessee is loaded. The potential saving grace for Dallas is they host three of their first four games, including contests against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati.
Cowboys odds, picks, and props
Now we know the sportsbooks prediction for the Cowboys on a week-by-week basis. Let’s take a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, the conference, and the Super Bowl.
- Cowboys win total: 10 (Over -110, Under -110)
- Cowboys highest-scoring team: +1200
- NFC East winner: +135
- NFC winner: +850
- Super Bowl winner: +1800
It’s much more fun betting on quality teams. The Cowboys’ prop bets include whether they can repeat claiming their crown as the NFL’s top-scoring team. Beyond that, the Cowboys are considered the best NFC East contender but an outside threat to win the NFC and Super Bowl.
This is a critical season for Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy nearly lost both offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to other head coaching jobs. The idea Dallas could cut ties with McCarthy and promote one of their prized coordinators in 2023 isn’t far-fetched if Jerry and Stephen Jones feel that McCarthy is holding the team back from their potential.
How Dallas handles that pressure could make or break this regime’s future. Dallas has a veteran roster facing difficult cap decisions in the near future. Breaking through their glass ceiling can completely change the franchise’s next moves.
The strength of the NFC East is another major factor in whether the Cowboys can hit the over on their win total and progress deep into the playoffs. Philadelphia and Washington were able to get better this offseason by adding to their offenses. It should not be a foregone conclusion Dallas is even the best overall team in the East.
Cowboys MVP odds and player props
Alongside Super Bowl aspirations comes the possibility of individual awards. The Cowboys have an obvious MVP candidate in quarterback Dak Prescott. Prescott finished second in the 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award race to Joe Burrow last season.
The rest of the Cowboys’ roster offers some excellent opportunities for individual prop bets and awards as well. As Moore enters his third season as the offensive coordinator and Prescott has a full year under his belt after returning from ankle surgery, we should expect Dallas’ offense to continue churning out a productive unit. It’s a surprise to see both tight end Dalton Schultz and running back Ezekiel Elliott see lower prop bet totals than what each achieved last season.
- MVP
Dak Prescott +1600 - Dak Prescott regular-season passing TDs
Over/Under 31.5: Under (-115) Over (-110) - Dalton Schultz regular-season receiving TDs
Over/Under 5.5: Under (-105) Over (-125) - Ezekiel Elliott regular-season rushing yards
Over/Under 875.5: -115 - Defensive Player of the Year
Micah Parsons +1000 - Coach of the Year
Mike McCarthy +3000
Prescott’s MVP odds are solid if you believe in the Cowboys’ ability to outperform their 10-win season total. Winning the MVP takes the right blend of production, narrative, and team performance. He certainly checks off the first box after completing just under 69% of passes for 4,449 yards, 37 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions in 2021. Still, it’s the Cowboys’ overall success that will determine his candidacy.
Same goes for linebacker Micah Parsons’ ability to win Defensive Player of the Year. The numbers were there for Parsons as a rookie. Having a refined role from Day 1 can help him surpass his impressive 84-tackle and 13-sack marks from last season, and he’ll need to in order to best tough competition.
Cowboys 2022 picks
- Cowboys to win the NFC East: +135
- Prescott over 31.5 passing TDs: -110
- Schultz over 5.5 receiving TDs: -125
- Elliott over 875.5 rushing yards: -115
- Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year: +1000
It’s undeniable that Dallas has a strong team overall. Their offensive upside, even without Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson, is immense. They still have one of the better offensive lines in the league and a quality receiving corps with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Schultz, and rookie Jalen Tolbert.
While also counting the loss of Randy Gregory, the Cowboys got worse this offseason in terms of their ceiling. However, if you believe in this team’s ability to hit 12 wins or more again, you should buy into Prescott’s MVP chances and Parsons’ DPOY case. Both have excellent star power and statistical upside, so if Dallas wins, these two will be at the forefront of the discussion.
I’m only willing to sprinkly a partial unit on Parsons winning DPOY. He’s one of the most electric talents in the NFL, thanks to his versatility. Just a slight increase in interceptions and sacks could put his DPOY odds on par with Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett, and T.J. Watt’s.
The Cowboys’ win total is well set at 10. We could buy it down to 9.5 and take the over or to 10.5 and take the under because I think 10 is the magic number for them. The value for Dallas winning the NFC East is solid even if I like the Eagles just as much since we’re getting a +135 return.
I’m fully investing in Dallas’ playmakers being star producers once again. Certain pundits may treat Elliott like the plague because of his middling 4.2 yards per carry and hefty salary cap hit, but he’s a reliable workhorse who will get the bulk of touches in 2022. This may be his last year in Dallas since his contract has an out after the season. Thus, there’s more incentive for the Cowboys to squeeze as much as they can out of Elliott.
I also like Prescott and Schultz to continue connecting on touchdown passes. Losing Cooper and Wilson is a big blow even if Dallas reloaded with Tolbert and potentially a full slate of games from Gallup. Prescott easily cleared the 31.5 touchdown mark despite missing one game, and Schultz caught eight scores.
The bar isn’t terribly high to clear on either of these props. Cooper and Wilson totaled 14 touchdowns last year, opening the door for one or more two to go to Schultz even if Lamb and Gallup eat up the rest.